Drafting a fantasy team can include a multitude of strategies, but in the end, you’re always hoping to have picked those players who finish near the top of their positions.
Obviously there are the top tier names who are likely to do that, but with each season, there are always guys who break their way into the top 10 by season’s end, only to help those that saw the upside they had. In an effort to find the next Jeremy Hill, Emmanuel Sanders and Jeremy Maclin, we asked our featured experts to name which player being drafted later has a chance to finish among the top 10 at their position.
Expert Pick Recap
Expert | RB Pick | WR Pick | TE Pick |
Scott Whitfield – Roto Rankings | Doug Martin (TB) | Allen Robinson (JAC) | Jordan Reed (WAS) |
Dawgmatica – Pyromaniac | Doug Martin (TB) | Nelson Agholor (PHI) | Virgil Green (DEN) |
Doug Orth – FFToday | Chris Ivory (NYJ) | Brandon Marshall (NYJ) | Ben Watson (NO) |
Phil Alexander – FootballGuys | Arian Foster (HOU) | Allen Robinson (JAC) | Austin Seferian-Jenkins (TB) |
Q1. What RB outside the top 20 RB ADP has the best chance to finish the season as a top 10 RB?
Doug Martin (TB)
ADP: Overall #80 | RB #32
“With a current ADP of 32 at the running back position, you have to like the potential Doug Martin has as a 6th-7th rounder. As is the case with most teams who start a rookie QB, the Buccaneers should be running the ball more often than not, especially since it looks like their defense has improved quite a bit as well. From everything we’ve seen this offseason, including our own personal eye-test, the Muscle Hamster (he HATES that nickname) looks very close to where he was back in his 2012 rookie season when he ended up as the No. 2 RB in fantasy. Add to all this the fact that the Bucs have one of the easiest rushing schedules this year and you’re looking at a possible Comeback Player of the Year here.”
– Dawgmatica (Pyromaniac)
“After showing some rookie year burst in preseason Week 2, rushing for 59 yards on 6 carries, Martin may be positioned to finish as a top 10 fantasy RB this year. He has 9 games against fantasy defenses that gave up the 10th most or more Fantasy Points to RBs last year. 5 of those games are against defenses that gave up 4th most or more.”
– Scott Whitfield (Roto Rankings)
Chris Ivory (NYJ)
ADP: Overall #72 | RB #30
“Since my prognosticating powers don’t allow me to see if players like Todd Gurley or Arian Foster will return to full workloads earlier than expected, I’ll place my bets on Chris Ivory. The violent running style of Ivory leaves him open to the higher-percentage chance of injury than most backs, but it is important to note that he’s only missed one game in two years with the Jets after earning the dreaded injury-prone label in New Orleans. New OC Chan Gailey was in charge of the offense in Buffalo when Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller enjoyed their most productive fantasy seasons, so it is clear he can adapt his running game to fit the player. Last but not least, the Jets have good receivers (Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker) to take defenders out of the box for the first time in years, no realistic competition for Ivory at his position, and a coaching staff that has admittedly been impressed by Ivory’s quickness as well as his abilities as a receiver.”
– Doug Orth (FFToday)
Arian Foster (HOU)
ADP: Overall #64 | RB #28
“According to recent reports, Arian Foster has a shot to miss only four games with his groin injury. If that’s the case, he only needs to maintain his per game production from 2014 to finish inside the cumulative top 10 at the end of season. And even if Foster misses six games (which seems like a realistic worst case scenario at this point), he’s still well worth taking as the 27th running back off the board. At that price, you’re still getting half the fantasy regular season of high-end RB1 production from a player you probably drafted as your RB3. That’s the stuff championships are made of.”
– Phil Alexander (FootballGuys)
Q2. What WR outside the top 20 WR ADP has the best chance to finish the season as a top 10 WR?
Allen Robinson (JAC)
ADP: Overall #84 | WR #31
“Top 10 might be pushing it, but if we’re evaluating the wide receivers outside the top 20 ADP purely on ceiling, my pick would be Allen Robinson. Robinson ranked as the PPR WR18 from Weeks 3 to 8 in 2014, before his rookie season got cut short due to a foot injury. Now that he’s healthy, and the Jacksonville offense has added a few pieces (T.J Yeldon, Julius Thomas), I don’t see why there can’t be upside for more from a player who’s closest athletic comparable is Dez Bryant. If Robinson’s association with Blake Bortles is too scary for you, my runner-up would be Brandon Marshall, who looks like a target hog for the Jets, and is no stranger to top 10 WR seasons.”
– Phil Alexander (FootballGuys)
“Allen Robinson played in 10 games last year but only started 8. Extrapolating his 8 starts would have given him 86 catches for 946 yards. A full year of health in his second year with Blake Bortles and facing 6 fantasy defenses who gave up the 7th most or more fantasy points to WRs last year, puts Robinson on a top 10 trajectory.”
– Scott Whitfield (Roto Rankings)
Nelson Agholor (PHI)
ADP: Overall #85 | WR #30
“It’s the system baby! Chip Kelly just knows how to run an offense and also target players that fit HIS mold. Agholor is a guy he targeted in the draft for his precise route running, run after the catch ability, and smooth moves to overtake defenders deep. Kelly has produced back to back top 10 seasons out of DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin with averages of 84 catches for 1,330 yards and 9.5 touchdowns. The key is they play on the outside, and Agholor is going to end up there through talent, hard work, and football savvy.”
– Dawgmatica (Pyromaniac)
Brandon Marshall (NYJ)
ADP: Overall #57 | WR #23
“Even though Davante Adams’ ADP is outside the top 20 now, I don’t expect it will stay there much longer, so I’ll go in a different direction and choose Brandon Marshall. The Jets’ new top wideout is no stranger to the top 10, but is getting a bit of the cold-shoulder treatment from owners in the first three rounds after battling through injuries for most of 2014, and because his new quarterback will be some combination of Ryan Fitzpatrick and/or Geno Smith this season. If you want to knock him on the first charge, that’s fine; here’s a sampling of the best quarterbacks Marshall has played with in his career: Jay Cutler, Chad Henne and Kyle Orton. In other words, league-average quarterbacks haven’t held him back before.”
– Doug Orth (FFToday)
Q3. What TE outside the top 20 TE ADP has the best chance to finish the season as a top-10 TE?
Ben Watson (NO)
ADP: Overall #298 | TE #32
“Most of the tight ends inside the top 20 ADP are the best candidates to finish inside the top 10, but if I were forced to bet on one outside the top 20, I’d say Ben Watson has as good of a chance as any of them. Watson will turn 35 late in the season, but appears to have a firm grasp of the starting job in New Orleans and a quarterback in Drew Brees that kept his tight ends happy long before Jimmy Graham was drafted. Contrary to popular belief, Josh Hill will likely remain a sub-package player/special teams contributor, leaving Watson with the majority of early-down snaps. I’m not sure a top 10 finish is realistic for Watson, but a 50-catch, 6-8 score season could be in his future if certain things go his way in 2015.”
– Doug Orth (FFToday)
Austin Seferian-Jenkins (TB)
ADP: Overall #201 | TE #24
“I can see Seferian-Jenkins emerging as a fringe top 10 TE this season. Since there’s not many tight ends that can be counted on for high target volume from week-to-week, touchdown upside is critical. Seferian-Jenkins was a dominant red zone receiver in college, and is a skilled enough player to take advantage of the single coverage he’ll see over the middle, while defenses try to stop Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson on the outside. Cumulative totals similar to what we saw from Larry Donnell last year (623 yards, six TDs) wouldn’t shock me.”
– Phil Alexander (FootballGuys)
Jordan Reed (WAS)
ADP: Overall #241 | TE #27
When and if Jordan Reed is healthy, he is a startable TE. However his current ADP reflects his injury history as owners never know how many starts he’ll make. Reed has missed almost 10 games in his first two years in the league and he’s basically averaged 50 catches and 500 yards over those 2 years. A full year of health and the loss of Niles Paul, could make Jordan Reed a 100 catch, 1,000 yard top 10 TE.
– Scott Whitfield (Roto Rankings)
Virgil Green (DEN)
ADP: Overall #230 | TE #28
“Tight end is probably the toughest position for a guy to break into the top 10 when he’s ranked outside the top 20 to start the season, but there are a couple of guys with potential to do just that in 2015. The player we like the most here is Virgil Green, who even though most believe is more of a “blocking tight end”, isn’t really that at all. In fact, his athleticism and catching ability are on par with guys like Julius Thomas, Jordan Cameron and Travis Kelce, and are what got him drafted back in 2011 in the first place. Owen Daniels will turn 33 in November and hasn’t stayed healthy for an entire season since 2008. With Peyton Manning’s TE-friendly arm throwing him the ball in Gary Kubiak’s TE-friendly scheme, there’s some real top 10 potential here.”
– Dawgmatica (Pyromaniac)
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Thank you to the experts for picking their high upside players at each position. Be sure to visit our Forums for more great discussion.