14-Team PPR Fantasy Football Mock Draft

It’s almost preseason, and that means leagues all around are setting up their fantasy football drafts. The biggest thing people want to know about is where they are drafting from. Where you pick from, and what your scoring format is will factor heavily in who you draft. My league just selected its order for the 2015 season, so I felt this was an excellent opportunity to showcase draft strategy in a 14-team PPR league. Using our Draft Wizard, I was able to replicate my league’s settings. Using all of the AI functions offered on this tool, I was able to draft against ECR, ADP and the pre-draft rankings system.

Draft Wizard: Mock in minutes vs. the most accurate experts

The league I am mocking for operates with nine starters (QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, TE, FLEX, D/ST, K) along with a four-player bench. The bench is shorter to compensate for the deeper league. A 12-team league’s standard bench size is six players, putting a total of 180 players on rosters, and with four to a bench in a 14-team league you have 182 players on rosters. Not perfect science, but it keeps the same number of players in free agency every week. I will be drafting from the 13^th spot, giving me the 13^th, 16^th, 41^st and 44^th picks to do my early-round damage. Being in a PPR league and being towards the end of the first round, my strategy will be to load up on high target receivers and tight ends, dual-threat running backs and quarterbacks on passing teams in good environments. I know that I will most likely miss out on a top tier running back so I will focus on stacking up as many primary receiving threats on good passing teams as possible.

Round 1 (13) Julio Jones – WR – ATL

At 13, eight RBs are off the board, along with Rob Gronkowski and three top WRs (Demaryius Thomas, Odell Beckham and Antonio Brown) Knowing that top tier RBs are gone and that I have two picks in the next four slots, this is an ideal situation for me. It guarantees me two top tier receivers at this point, which was exactly what I wanted. Julio Jones, Jordy Nelson, Calvin Johnson and Dez Bryant are still available, and I am guaranteed two of those four. All have QB1s throwing to them. Three play in domes for home games and the other has Aaron Rodgers. All have some recent injury history, but they’re still the safest picks at this point. I would not be reaching on C.J. Anderson, DeMarco Murray or LeSean McCoy at this point as I would not feel as comfortable in their roles this season (changing teams, changing coaches, injuries and usage are all factors) I take Julio Jones here because he is the one I would fear not being there at 16.

Round 2 (16) Dez Bryant – WR – DAL

I luck out here as A.J. Green and Randall Cobb are selected at 14 and 15, so I have all three of my targets to choose from between Bryant, Nelson and Calvin Johnson. I am the least high on Megatron because Stafford is the weakest of the three quarterbacks, and Golden Tate took a lot of targets away from him last season. Nelson has big games but also has another legitimate receiver playing alongside him in Cobb. Bryant was the player I really wanted, and he fell to me at 16, which solidifies my two receiver spots for the majority of the season. If I wanted to reach on one of the aforementioned RBs, I would be waiting 24 picks before being able to draft another WR. By then we would be looking at some weaker options more fit for flex spots. If I was going to commit to a target-laden receiver and tight end corps, this was the route I was going to take.

Round 3 (41) Emmanuel Sanders – WR – DEN

My strategy here at 41 and 44 is to take the best available receiver and tight end to solidify my foundation with four high target players to help my team succeed in the PPR format. I know that after Andrew Luck and Aaron Rodgers, no QB is worth taking this early. I also know that I have missed on any legitimate running backs who are solidified as starters. My main target here was going to be Julian Edelman, but he was taken a spot before mine. However, much to my surprise, Emmanuel Sanders fell to me here, and I was not going to pass up on him. At this point, I have three receivers who finished in the top 10 in catches (Jones 104, Sanders 101, Bryant 88) and top 12 in targets (Jones 163, Sanders 141, Bryant 136). Sanders is a formidable flex option and will get a lot of looks in the Broncos’ offense.

Round 4 (44) Greg Olsen – TE – CAR

I hit a temptations crossroads here as Golden Tate was still available here, which would give me a fourth receiver before I drafted any other position. Tate also finished in the top 10 in targets and had 99 catches. This would set me up for bye weeks and injuries, but it would also continue to weaken me in other areas. I would not pick again until 69 and 72, and by then I would be in a position where I would be taking fliers on more players than just running backs. I stuck to the plan and took Greg Olsen, who finished with the fourth most targets among tight ends, along with 84 catches. He also plays in the very weak NFC South and is not just a goal line target for the Panthers. I chose him over Travis Kelce and Martellus Bennett because of their schedule and their quarterback situations. I am comfortable with this decision because we do not know what Tate’s production will be with a healthy Calvin Johnson.

Round 5 (69) – Giovani Bernard – RB – CIN

This leg of my draft includes filling out my quarterback slot and also beginning to look at what running backs will fit my strategy of finding value in lower-ranked RB2s and backups. I think that this is the part of the draft where QBs will start flying off the board. Since the top five (Luck, Rodgers, Manning, Brees, Wilson) are all gone, this may be a good opportunity to nab a top 10 quarterback with high upside and a good schedule. However, Giovani Bernard is the 49^th ranked player in this draft but is still available at 69. He was slated as the starter last season before injuries and the emergence of Jeremy Hill derailed his season. He falls into a prime spot for me here as I hope to get decent production with both receptions and carries that could equal enough points to justify a start. There is a huge drop-off from him to the next back. Plus, I am still guaranteed one of three QBs who I am targeting (Ben Roethlisberger, Matt Ryan, Tony Romo) by the time my pick comes around again at 72.

Round 6 (72) – Matt Ryan – QB – ATL

I took Ryan over Big Ben and Romo here because I like his schedule the best (eight home games in a dome, road indoor games in Dallas and New Orleans, second easiest schedule overall, third easiest for QBs) and the fact that he has Julio Jones and Roddy White. Yes, Romo has Bryant, and Roethlisberger has Brown, but I think Ryan has the best overall package to have a top tier season out of the quarterbacks available. By the time my next pick (97^th overall) came around, the top 14 quarterbacks were gone. It looks like I may have been the one to start a run of QBs off the board. Got the one I wanted, though.

Round 7 (97) – Shane Vereen – RB – NYG

Vereen is my big sleeper this year. I even showcased him in my running back primer article and mentioned that he is probably one of the most undervalued backs this season. His ADP is 101, and he comes to me here at 97 which is right around where he should fall. He is part of a three-headed monster in New York, but in a PPR format he is the most valuable. Rashad Jennings cannot stay healthy, and Andre Williams might take most of the bulk carries at the goal line, so Vereen’s value lies in this pass catching abilities. They threw a lot of money his way so I feel that he will be a focal point of the offense. His role will be similar to what it was in New England in their muddled RB situation. Vereen was one of 11 running backs taken in the next fourteen picks, so once again, I got ahead of the group to begin filling in my value roles with pass catching running backs.

Round 8 (100) – Chris Ivory – RB – NYJ

Ivory also fell in comparison to his ADP (89), and this was a longshot target of mine only because he seems to be the main back for Todd Bowles heading into 2015. I tend to shy away from players on weaker offenses, but the Jets, with a weak quarterback and a strong defense will probably look to run the ball more often than not. Ivory was also the best available back if I did just want a traditional ball carrier. I was able to grab him before my next pick at 125 where there would have barely been any running backs worth taking available. Vereen and Ivory were two of the 22 running backs that were selected from 96 to 124. The upside and potential usage for both of them made them very attractive picks.

Round 9 (125) – Marques Colston – WR – NO

I wanted to secure another receiver this late in the draft who was serviceable but also established. After picking Ivory, and even with the run of running backs going off the board, I lost out on some of my targets for this leg of the draft. This included Steve Smith, Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Floyd, Torrey Smith and Anquan Boldin. I was still fortunate enough to pick up Marques Colston, who also fits this profile, at 125. Colston had a down year, which accounts for him falling this year. But the Saints have revamped their offense and shipped off Jimmy Graham and Kenny Stills, who accounted for a lot of lost targets for Colston. Now it’s just him and Brandin Cooks. With the addition of C.J. Spiller in the passing game and an established running back in Mark Ingram, Colston should be a serviceable player given their schedule and dome situation, along with still having Drew Brees. Yes, it is a big drop off from Jones/Bryant/Sanders, but Colston still had 99 targets go his way in 2014.

Round 10 (128) – Dan Herron – RB – IND

Herron came on strong at the end of last season with an injury to Ahmad Bradshaw and an ineffective Trent Richardson. Both are gone, and now Frank Gore is the veteran lead back. I picked up Herron because he had a great end to the regular season and was very effective in the playoffs. I also can see Gore not staying healthy, which would open up the door for Herron to take on lead back duties. This is a bit of a flier, and FantasyPros slapped me on the wrists with a “reach” tag on Herron. We will see. Round 11 looked like all fliers and handcuffs after Herron anyway (DeAngelo Williams/Montee Ball/James Starks territory) so I am comfortable with my pick.

Round 11 (153) – Stephen Gostkowski – K – NE

People will judge if you take your kicker and defense before the last two rounds, but when nothing stands out and you have options to take top-tier players at positions that are usually streamed, you jump on it. I drafted Gostkowski last season and plugged him in every week without worries. I even held onto him during the bye week. There are a handful of kickers who are worth holding onto on a four-man bench. Gostkowski is maybe one of five (Steven Hauschka, Justin Tucker, Adam Vinatieri and Mason Crosby) who fits that bill. There is value in choosing Gostkowski over my bye week QB or TE because of his consistency and his role in New England’s high powered offense.

Round 12 (156) – Cardinals D/ST – ARI

Same logic as the pick above. The Cardinals are a top five defense heading into 2015 and was the last of the must start weekly defenses that were available, behind Seattle, Buffalo, St. Louis and Houston. No position player stood out as a pick worthy of supplementing a week-in, week-out start such as the Cardinals’ defense.

Round 13 (181) – John Brown – WR – ARI (104 ADP)

Brown was a huge steal here being taken at 181. I like him because he is the same type of player as three other small receivers/returners who turned into fantasy studs: Antonio Brown, T.Y. Hilton and Emmanuel Sanders. All three of them have benefited from guidance under Bruce Arians, who happens to be the coach of the Cardinals. I can see Brown becoming a legitimate threat for the Cardinals and had great rapport with Carson Palmer last season before his ACL injury. I hope his development coincides with my starting receivers’ bye weeks (Weeks 6, 7, 10) to justify starting him.

How do I feel about my draft?

In the land of PPR, targets are gold. I feel comfortable that I stayed committed to my strategy of going for high target players who are primary targets for their respective teams. The chart below breaks down my position players’ targets and ranks at their respective position. I have five players with over 100 targets (a sixth with 99). My top two running backs finished fourth and 13th in targets, which was exactly what I wanted to see. Only Ivory and Herron did not meet this criteria. However, even they will most likely have an expanded role in their respective offenses this year with Chris Johnson leaving the Jets and Herron having a full season to thrive in the Colts’ offense.

How does the draft analyzer feel about my draft?

• Overall: Third
• Starters: Fifth
• Bench: Sixth
• Strongest position: WR (first) and K (first)
• Weakest position: RB (12th) – this will happen when you load up on RB2s.
• Value picks: Giovani Bernard, Shane Vereen, Marques Colston – I agree here as my RB strategy was to find value in the RB2 area. Colston is a low risk, high reward pick.
• Steals: John Brown – I called this one as well. Brown will have a top-36 season this year if utilized correctly.
• Slight Reaches: Greg Olsen – Not sure how this is a reach in the fourth round for the fourth-ranked tight end. Most likely this is based on his falling ADP and the fact that there are more established weapons around him this year. I still like it.
• Reaches: Dan Herron and Stephen Gostkowski – I can agree about Herron but I may be biased to him because of how his season ended. I do not agree that Gostkowski is a reach given his productivity, but the simulator does not like when you take a kicker earlier than you have to.

Summary

I am shocked I ended up with last season’s fourth, fifth and sixth highest scoring receivers, seventh highest scoring quarterback and fourth highest scoring tight end. Remember, no draft will be perfect. The important part is staying true to a strategy that you feel will give you the best chance to succeed. The amount of time and energy put into planning will go to waste if you deviate from what you set out to do. By now, you should have an idea of where you will be drafting or how many people are in your league so you will be able to mock more accurately. My best advice to everyone out there is to know as much as you can to make the best-educated guess possible. Put yourself in the best situation to succeed. More importantly, have fun.

Mock in minutes with our free draft simulator

Michael Vincent is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Michael, check out his archive and follow him @MVtweetshere.