At the beginning of the season, if someone told you that David Wright would be leading the team in All-Star votes you would have probably thought he was having a productive season for New York and for your fantasy squad. Unfortunately, the Mets’ third baseman has appeared in just eight games for the team this season, limited by a hamstring strain and tightness in his low back. After little to no prognosis Wright had a follow-up evaluation where he was diagnosed with spinal stenosis. How does the latest news impact his fantasy value for 2015 and beyond?
The Anatomy
Wright has spinal stenosis in his lumbar vertebrae. First, the lumbar vertebrae are found in the lower back and meet up with your sacrum (part of your “tailbone”). They are the largest of the vertebrae because they support the weight of the entire upper body. Back injuries, especially to the lumbar region, are very common, with 80% of the population of the United States experiencing low back pain at some point in their lives. Of course, 80% of Americans aren’t baseball players that are counted on to be a top-10 fantasy third baseman.
Spinal stenosis refers to a narrowing of the vertebral foramen, which is the canal that runs the entire length of your vertebral column and which houses the spinal cord. The smaller space means less room for the spinal cord and for any nerves in that area that branch off from the spinal cord. It is easier to compress these nerves, which can result in symptoms like numbness, tingling, or radiating pain. Since these nerves will also carry electrical impulses needed to trigger a muscular contraction any compression or inflammation in this area can result in a loss of strength, which will certainly limit a person’s athletic performance.
What’s Next for Wright?
At this point, Wright is still nowhere close to any type of baseball activity, and the team is not close to setting any type of timetable for his return. He received an epidural shot on Monday to try and decrease the inflammation and pain in the lumbar area and is doing nothing but resting at this point. With another appointment with back specialist scheduled for early next week, Mets’ GM Sandy Alderson stated, “We’ll have a better read at that point at his prognosis over the short term.”
Unfortunately for fantasy owners, there has been limited information released about Wright’s condition. I think that is because Wright is not making much progress. Spinal stenosis can be a congenital condition (when someone is born with the condition) but it can also develop as a result of repeated injuries to the intervertebral discs, which could bulge out and press into the spinal cord or nerves. The Mets have not announced how Wright’s spinal stenosis developed, so we are left to speculate.
Wright’s Fantasy Prognosis
For me, it is hard to see Wright returning to action before the All-Star break. In fact, even if Wright does return it is hard for me to see him as an everyday player ever again. Remember that I am speculating because we don’t know all of the information, but this condition is not one that goes away. It can be managed, but it will require Wright to take more frequent days off which limits his fantasy value.
There has been speculation that Wright’s career is nearing its end. “I don’t know how he is going to make it all the way (to the end of his contract in 2020) with this diagnosis,” said Dr. Charles Ruotolo, Chairman of Department of Orthopedic Surgery at Nassau University Medical Center. As I have been researching Wright’s injuries and his long-term fantasy outlook it was easy for me to see similarities to Don Mattingly’s career and Steven Martano does an excellent job of detailing those similarities.
For the rest of this season, in leagues with daily transactions, if you have room on your DL you can keep Wright around and hope that he makes some contribution for your team. Honestly, I think you would be completely justified if you wanted to just drop Wright in any format. His counting stats have been in decline over the last three seasons and there were some preseason projections that had Wright failing to reach double-digits in home runs. I would use this time to see if you can acquire a player that has 3B-eligibility so you have a ready substitute for those days that he needs a break. Cleveland’s Carlos Santana is only batting .221, so he might be a good buy-low option. Jung-Ho Kang of the Pirates could also have 3B-eligibility in your league and could provide 10-12 home runs and 12-15 stolen bases for the rest of the year with a solid batting average. He is owned in less than 25% of ESPN leagues and has the bonus of having shortstop eligibility.
Jeremy Tiermini is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Jeremy, check out his archive and follow him @JeremyTiermini.