One month into the 2015 season, and so far, most expectations have been met or exceeded. In some cases, shocking and unexpected surprises have also been brought into the fray. Among the unexpected are some of the slow adjustments that key players have made between the American and National Leagues.
Make no mistake, the offseason between 2014 and 2015 was one of the hottest of hot stoves there have been in recent years. It also saw numerous trades between leagues. From National to American and vice versa, players that made impacts in these respective leagues in 2014 saw themselves on the auction block. As a result, some of these players found themselves in unfamiliar territories, their early season performances have not lived up to the standards fantasy owners have come to expect.
It is still very early to make any reasonable prediction on players and teams, since many have not even completed their first 30 games. But the noteworthy adjustment troubles do bring a viable question to mind. Does switching between American and National Leagues significantly impact a player’s performance? So far, the numbers of some impact players seem to point to yes.
To illustrate this point, I will highlight a pair of players that have made a recent move to the opposite league, and show evidence of adjustment problems.
First, the National League. For this example, I will use pitcher Jon Lester.
His Career: Lester posted a fairly impressive 3.91 ERA over 116 games in 8 seasons with the Boston Red Sox, and the half of a season last year with the Oakland Athletics. He also had a 1.28 WHIP over that stretch with Boston, serving as their ace for a good portion of his tenure. Lester also has 1,485 strikeouts to his name, while only giving up 146 home runs and 551 walks.
So far in 2015: The Chicago Cubs signed Lester as a free agent over the winter. However, so far this season, Lester only has 2 wins over 5 starts, largely struggling over the early part of the season. Should Chicago be feeling buyer’s remorse for their investment in this former ace from the American League? Likely not, as Lester has shown improvement of late, recently lowering his ERA closer to 4.00. His peripherals also indicate that his numbers should continue to improve, making him a good buy-low candidate as he continues to adjust to his new league.
Now, the American League. For this example, I will use a hitter, Evan Gattis.
His Career: His back story mixed with his solid work ethic, approach to the game, and Thor-like hammer of a power bat quickly made Gattis a fan-favorite in the Atlanta Braves’ organization. In his first two seasons, through the span of 213 games and 743 plate appearances, Gattis posted a solid .253 batting average with 43 home runs, 117 RBI and an OPS of .791.
So far in 2015: Gattis was acquired from the Braves by the Houston Astros, along with minor league pitcher James Hoyt, in a five-player trade that sent three of Houston’s top prospects to Atlanta. In Spring Training, Gattis posted a stellar .395 average. This suggested that Gattis was trying a more “put the ball in play” approach, rather than an “always swing for the fences” approach.
But in his first 23 plate appearances as an Astro the baseball Gods were not very kind to El Oso Blanco, as he failed to get a hit. Could the shift from being a position player (Gattis served as a catcher) in the National League to serving as a designated hitter in the American League possibly have had a negative affect on Gattis? Like Lester, Gattis has also shown improvement of late, returning to his powerful form and renewing confidence in fantasy owners.
Many of us fans will not be able to answer these questions on players like Lester and Gattis that are switching leagues very easily. Especially since they have both recently been on hitting and pitching tears. But this evidence provides a new light on how changing not only teams but leagues, could impact a player in a way that is not always beneficial. Adjustments can be slow, depending on the player. It’s not conducive to all players that make this shift, but it is something to be considered, in future fantasy drafts. You could also potentially target those switching leagues in the offsesaon early in the fantasy campaign as buy-low candidates, expecting them to ultimately recover from their slow starts.
James Zeankowski is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from James, check out his archive and follow him @tvwizard85.