Should fantasy owners sell high on Dee Gordon or hold onto the second baseman?
After stealing 64 bags in 2014, many wondered before the season what Dee Gordon had in store in his inaugural year as a Marlin. The big questions were whether he would be able to surpass his 2014 production, or if he would even be able to maintain those numbers. While he has gotten off to a torrid start in a season where he currently leads the league in hits and batting average, all signs point to imminent regression.
His batting average is a very healthy .425, and has fueled his lofty OBP of .453. That OBP, in turn, has facilitated 18 runs in 138 plate appearances, which is one run every 7.67 plate appearances. That puts him on pace for 85 runs if he has 650 PAs in 2015. Now, we know he’s not going to score 85 runs. Why? Because he’s not going to get on base 45 percent of the time throughout the season. Consider for a moment that his career batting average is .287. His rookie season was the only season in his first four years where he finished with a batting average above .300 (.304). You have to think that a major hitting slump (or slumps) is on the horizon, and it’s one that will likely result in his average dropping by more than 100 percentage points by season’s ends. In fact, I’m willing to say that he ends up hitting below .320. But hey, if you’re hitting .319 you’re still doing a bang-up job. However, his batting average is heavily inflated by a ridiculous .482 BABIP and a 24 percent infield hit rate. It wouldn’t surprise me if his average even fell under .300 by season’s end.
His walk rate is at 5.8 percent, which is about where we expect it to be. With that being said, you can expect his final OBP to be around .350 to .375, which would be a drop-off of more than 75 percentage points compared to his current OBP. If he’s not on base as often, he obviously cannot score runs or steal bases at the same rate. Maybe you think that part of his run total is affiliated with his baserunning, but I’m here to tell you that’s not the case. His runs from base running are -1, meaning that he’s been a worse baserunner so far than the average player.
Still don’t believe he’s been a poor baserunner this season? His stolen base percentage is at 63 percent, a career-low by 13 percent. He’s already been caught stealing three more times than any other player in the league. With that being said, much of his fantasy value last year was his league-leading 64 stolen bases, which will be tough to come by this year if he doesn’t pull it together. If his baserunning doesn’t improve, then when his BA and OBP take a steep drop, the runs will inevitably be harder to come by. This simply is not the Gordon we’ve come to know over his first four years. We expected an elite baserunner with decent contact, but instead we’re getting a lackluster baserunner with elite contact.
After all that, let’s say Gordon fulfills my rather conservative end-of-season projection of 80 R, 2 HR, 45 RBI, 50 SB and .300 BA. These numbers would still be good enough to make him a top-three second baseman. Despite the rather steep drop-off that we can expect, he will still deliver top-of-the-line numbers when it’s all said and done. It’s become apparent that Gordon has raised his floor as an MLB hitter and is poised to have an excellent career. He’s looking like one of the elite second basemen in baseball and should continue to be top-five at the position annually for years to come.
If you are in a redraft league and you have him, I encourage you to sell him only if you can get a consistent top-10 performer for him. Dynasty leaguers should hold onto him. He won’t be quite this good, but he’ll still have solid numbers in the end. If you’re in a redraft league and you want him, then hold off on a trade offer until he starts to cool off since his value is very inflated right now. If you don’t own him in a dynasty league and you want his services, he’s worth taking the plunge for if you have some older, high-performing players you can use as trade bait. Either way, don’t sleep on Flash Gordon!
Jonathan Ebanks is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Jonathan, check out his archive and follow him @hogz4lyfe.
