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From the 2015 NFL Draft to training camp, there are plenty of events that will alter my 2015 “Early Top 10 Running Back Rankings”.
The fantasy football community still needs Adrian Peterson to find a home to evaluate his situation accordingly, and if rookies Todd Gurley and Melvin Gordon are selected by the right team and live up to the hype, they could have a chance to finish as top 10 backs in 2015. The plans of new head coaches and injury updates will also create additional information to account for as the season gets closer. Right now, however, these are my top 10 backs before the craziness of the off-season settles.
1. Eddie Lacy – Green Bay Packers
Lacy got off to a slow start in 2014, but in his first three games, he faced the third-ranked rush defense of the Seattle Seahawks, the fifth-ranked rush defense of the New York Jets and the first-ranked rush defense of the Detroit Lions. Not a friendly way to start the season. From Week 4 on, however, Lacy only finished with fewer than 10 points once. In fact, Lacy actually averaged 15.84 points per game in standard scoring leagues after he struggled in the first three weeks. While the 24-year-old back did see a decrease in carries from his rookie season, he also saw a nice jump in his receiving yards from 257 in 2013, to 427 in 2014. With less rushing attempts, he should be able to stay healthy, and as long as he continues to receive work in the passing attack, Lacy is currently the best bet to finish as the highest-scoring running back in 2015 fantasy leagues.
2. Le’Veon Bell – Pittsburgh Steelers
In most mock drafts, Bell is the first player off the board. I understand that Bell’s 2014 season may be an indication of what to expect for the rest of his career, but his suspension scares me. If Bell missed two games in 2014, he would have been the fourth-highest scoring running back in fantasy football. If he faces a four-game suspension, he will have a hard time finishing as a top 10 back. I have no knocks on his talents, and I would have Bell as the highest-rated back if it were not for the looming suspension. If you plan on drafting Bell, make sure to pick up DeAngelo Williams in the later part of your draft as well.
3. Marshawn Lynch – Seattle Seahawks
With Lynch in Seattle for at least another season, there is no reason why he can’t finish as a top five back. Unfortunately for Seattle’s opponents, teams will now have to figure out how to cover Jimmy Graham, contain Russell Wilson’s dual-threat ability and stop Lynch. Even with 21 fewer carries last season compared to 2013, Lynch was able to produce more rushing yards and score more total touchdowns. Beast Mode is somewhat becoming like Frank Gore for fantasy football players, as each year there appears to be reasons to count him out, but he still ends up producing. 2015 will be no different.
4. Adrian Peterson – TBD
Peterson only played one game in 2014 and his future in the NFL is still uncertain, but no matter where he finds himself, “All Day” is a must-draft back. I’m admittedly a little bit of a risk taker, so if other people are scared away by Peterson, I will view that as an opportunity. It doesn’t seem too many fantasy football players are scared away from him, however, as he is a top five pick in most of my mock drafts. His stock will move up or down when we find out where he is playing in 2015, but he is still in the running for another amazing season.
5. Andre Ellington – Arizona Cardinals
Despite missing the last four games of the season and playing banged up for most of the year, Ellington finished as a top 20 back. As a 5-foot-9, 199-pound runner, he can’t be relied on as a workhorse back though. The Cardinals need to find a power back to compliment Ellington’s elusiveness, and the organization may be able to do that through the 2015 NFL Draft. Even if he loses a few touches, Ellington is effective enough in the passing attack to make up for any lost opportunities running the ball. Right now, he is the go-to-guy for the Cardinals’ rushing attack, and even if a big bruiser joins the team, Ellington is still in contention as a top 10 back.
6. LeSean McCoy – Buffalo Bills
My only concern for Shady McCoy is that Rex Ryan will run him into the ground, and McCoy will become injured from overuse. Otherwise, I would probably have placed him ahead of Peterson. Even with offensive line issues, high expectations and the addition of Darren Sproles, McCoy had a good football season in 2014. For fantasy owners who drafted him with the first or second pick in their draft, however, his finish as the 13th-highest scoring back did not win them over. With less competition and a coach that loves to run, McCoy finds himself in a favorable situation for fantasy success.
7. Jamaal Charles – Kansas City Chiefs
The 28-year-old Charles missed, or had a limited role in a few games in 2014, but still finished the season with 14 total touchdowns and 1,324 total yards. When he’s on the field, he’s a playmaker. The combination of Travis Kelce and Jeremy Maclin may cut into the amount of receptions Charles sees in 2015, but Alex Smith will still look for his favorite running back for short dump offs that can turn into big plays.
8. DeMarco Murray – Philadelphia Eagles
If Murray stayed with the Dallas Cowboys, there would be no way he could handle another season of touching the ball 450 times. I think he finds himself in an interesting situation with Philadelphia, as Ryan Mathews and Darren Sproles are both pass-catching backs, so I’m not exactly sure what Chip Kelly has in mind. Murray will be playing for an offense that ranked sixth in passing yards and ninth in rushing, so it’s not like he finds himself in a bad situation. He will be a member of a productive offense, but Coach Kelly does not care about our fantasy teams, so I’m sure there will be some frustrating moments for Murray owners in 2015.
9. Matt Forte – Chicago Bears
Although he saw a decrease in his rushing yards, Forte recorded an amazing 102 receptions in 2014, for 808 yards and four touchdowns. The next closest back to Forte in terms of receptions was Bell with 83, and Forte recorded more receiving yards than Larry Fitzgerald and Keenan Allen. Although he was still productive last season, the Bears brought in Jacquizz Rodgers, and Ka’Deem Carey may see an increased role under new coach John Fox. Forte still probably has a few productive years ahead of him, but there are better options to own in the early part of your draft.
10. Alfred Morris – Washington Redskins
Despite only hauling in 37 catches in his three-year career, Morris is a dying breed who can rack up fantasy points just from running the ball. Even on a dismal offense, Morris totaled 1,074 rushing yards on 265 carries, and was able to finish as the 12th-highest scoring back in 2014. With former pass-catching teammate Roy Helu recently signing with the Oakland Raiders, Morris currently does not have any competition to take away from his playing time.
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Jack Delaney is a contributor at So Called Fantasy Experts. You can follow him on Twitter @YourFFCoach.
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