Josh Shepardson discusses the strikeout potential Derek Holland has.
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Most articles pertaining to Derek Holland this offseason will probably preach regression. I’ll be the first to tell you he’s not going to repeat his 1.46 ERA in 37 innings from a season ago. He’s also not going to allow zero home runs this year. He could, however, be a really sneaky source of a boat load of strikeouts.
Last year, Holland walked just a miniscule 3.5% of the batters he faced. A great rate, no doubt, and one that will probably regress a little closer to his 2013 rate of 7.2%. Still, control gains should be viewed as a positive, but that’s not the topic of this article. The topic is Holland’s ability — or potential perhaps — to pile up strikeouts in 2015. His 17.2% K last season isn’t exciting, but it’s deceptive.
The lefty managed a 10.1% swinging strike rate, per FanGraphs. The league average last year was 9.4%, yet Holland’s strikeout rate lagged behind the league average of 20.4%. What gives? For starters, if he continues to miss bats at the rate he did last year — not out of the question since he posted a 9.9% swinging strike rate in 2013 — he’ll see his strikeout rate climb north of 20%.
Of course, seeing his strikeout rate drop while his swinging strike rate rose, piqued my interest to dig deeper. I wanted to know how Holland was missing bats at such a high rate. Was it luck, increased velocity, a change in pitch mix or something else?
I can’t speak to luck, but I can say his four-seam fastball was down one mile-per-hour on average from 2013, according to Brooks Baseball. He could afford to lose a tick, though, and his four-seamer hummed in at 93.51 mph on average. Plenty of velocity for a lefty. His sinker, too, had some zip averaging 93.50 mph. This spring, his four-seam fastball average velocity is already up to 94.98 mph. A promising sign heading into the year. His whiff rate on his four-seam fastball was down from 5.33% in 2013 to 2.30% in 2014, so clearly the heater wasn’t the reason he was missing more bats. His sinker’s whiff rate of 7.08% was up ever so slightly from 2013, but it lined up favorably with previous seasons.
His changeup, though, featured an 11.11% whiff rate. That mark is his highest since 2010, and over 2% better than in 2013. His curveball also featured a 2.5% spike in whiff rate. Alas, the changeup didn’t fuel his improved swinging strike rate. He only threw it 3.16% of the time. His curve probably helped though. His usage grew from 4.9% in 2013 to 12.63% last year.
While the increased curve usage helped, it’s his slider which can be primarily credited for the empty swings. It’s easily his best weapon for avoiding contact. His slider accounted for an obscene 24.0% whiff rate, and in 2013 it was good for a 25.12% whiff rate. Indeed, it’s a dirty pitch. Perhaps the most exciting thing about the pitch is that he used it more last year. He threw his slider 23.43% of the time in 2013 and boosted his usage to 26.32% last year. Sliders have often been blamed for elbow damage, but I’m willing to roll the dice on Holland’s elbow holding up this year, namely because of his cost.
Holland’s composite average draft position is just 226.2. In a standard 12 team mixed league, he’s being selected in roughly the 18th round. The ECR ranks him as the 67th best starting pitcher, but I’m far more bullish and have him ranked higher (40th) than all but one other expert (Ryan Fowler of Fox Sports). There’s a lot to like with Holland, and when I’m looking for cheap strikeouts on draft day, I’ll be calling his name.
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Josh is a writer for Daily Fantasy Cafe. You can follow him on Twitter @BChad50.
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