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The NFL draft is quickly approaching, and mock drafts are being written and rewritten daily. Rookies have found a lot of success in the NFL in recent seasons, and the key is determining which rookies have the best chance to make an impact in their first year. Talent alone does not determine how well a rookie will perform, as a lot has to do with which team selects him, and the roster that he would be a part of. I am going to examine the top prospects from the 2015 NFL Draft, and see who will have the best chance to make an impact in their rookie season.
Jameis Winston (QB)
Winston is the consensus number one pick in this year’s draft, and is likely to become a member of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Winston has more talent than any other quarterbacks coming out this year, but talent has never been the issue; it’s his antics off the field that has raised concerns over drafting him. Winston impressed with his interviews at the combine, and he looks ready to take a step forward in his maturity process. If he is able to keep his attention on the field, he will have the best chance for success among the rookie quarterbacks. If he lands in Tampa Bay, he will immediately have one of the best young receivers in the game, Mike Evans, along with veteran receiver Vincent Jackson, which should allow him plenty of opportunities for success. He will also have the benefit of not being pushed for playing time, as Mike Glennon would be his primary competition. Jameis will be given the keys to the car from the get go, and while rookie quarterbacks don’t light the league on fire, he will have a better chance than most.
Melvin Gordon (RB)
Gordon is the top rookie running back prospect this season, and has drawn comparisons to Jamaal Charles. Gordon has big play ability, which he showed throughout his college career, but he only ran 4.52 in the forty-yard dash. The good news for rookie running backs is that they have the best chance for immediate success in the league. Gordon projects to be a mid-to-late first round pick, and where he ends up will determine his exact value. Potential landing spots include Dallas, San Diego, New England and Baltimore. There is no question that Dallas, with their outstanding offensive line, would be the best landing spot for him. San Diego would also be a good fit, as they only have Brandon Oliver as the main competition, who is more suited as a change of pace back. Baltimore could be a good fit, but with Justin Forsett back in the fold, he will likely have limited carries to start. If he lands in New England, you have to be concerned about him getting lost in the Belichick shuffle.
Todd Gurley (RB)
Gurley is one of the more interesting prospects in this year’s draft. He would have been the clear cut first running back off the board this year, but the fact that he suffered a torn ACL last November and would not let his knee be inspected at the combine, has caused him to be more of a question mark; he has fallen behind Melvin Gordon in most mock drafts. He should be fully recovered by the start of the season, and falling in the draft could be a blessing in disguise, as he should land with a better team. Potential landing spots for Gurley are Dallas, Houston, Detroit and Arizona. All of these locations would be a good fit for the Georgia product, but Dallas and Arizona are probably the best spots for him to end up. Dallas is the best fit, with their offensive line, and Arizona has a lot of promise, with Andre Ellington proving to be a change of pace back. The benefit for Gurley is that he has the size to be an every down back at 6’1” and 231 pounds, and he has shown to be very adept as a receiver. Any of these potential landing spots should lead to a productive rookie season for the Georgia Bulldog.
Amari Cooper (WR)
Cooper was the hands down number one receiver heading into the combine, but he fell behind fellow rookie Kevin White in many mock drafts, after White dazzled in Indianapolis. Cooper had an amazing junior season at Alabama, with 124 receptions for 1,727 yards, and 16 touchdowns. He is the most pro ready receiver in the draft this year and has good size standing at 6’1”, and weighing 211 pounds. Cooper showed all that he needed to show at the combine, running a 4.42 forty-yard dash. Before the combine, it seemed like a forgone conclusion that Cooper would be drafted by the Raiders with the fourth pick, and that still may happen, but he could also end up with the Bears at seven, Minnesota at 11 or potentially Miami down at 14. The Raiders seems like they would be a good fit, but as a rookie receiver, who would be the best receiver on the team, he could have a lot of issues facing top cornerbacks on a weekly basis. The Bears and Vikings are the best potential landing spots, as he would not be the number one receiver, which would allow him to face lesser defenders, more single coverage, leading to more success as a rookie.
Kevin White
White was the standout at the combine, which caused his stock to skyrocket. He is an imposing receiver, standing 6’3” and weighing 212 pounds. That size comes with a lot of speed, as he ran a 4.35 forty-yard dash. His freakish skill set has made him a favorite with scouts, and potentially the fourth overall pick to the Raiders. As with Amari Cooper, White has the same potential landing spots. While being the first receiver drafted would be a feather in his cap, landing with the Raiders is not the ideal place for him to have a breakout rookie campaign. The key for White’s success as a rookie, is finding the right offense where he can use his skills, but not be forced into trying to do too much, which is likely if he winds up in Oakland. If he were to fall, he could be scooped up by the Bears, Rams or Vikings, all of which would provide more potential than landing in Oakland.
DeVante Parker (WR)
Parker is yet another big receiver with speed, standing at 6’3”, weighing 209 pounds, and running a 4.45 forty-yard dash. Parker was a big play receiver in college, averaging 17.8 yards per catch. He will have a chance to be reunited with his college quarterback, Teddy Bridgewater, if he gets drafted by the Minnesota Vikings. Landing with the Vikings would give Parker a leg up, with his familiarity with Bridgewater. If he slides past Minnesota, he could end up in Cleveland, which would be a horrible place for him to find success as a rookie. Other potential destinations include Miami, Philadelphia and Kansas City. Miami would be a better fit, now that Mike Wallace is gone, and going to the Chiefs, who failed to throw a touchdown pass to a receiver last season, would be a disaster. Philadelphia would be a great fit, as he would slot into Jeremy Maclin’s old role on a high powered offense with plenty of weapons around him.
Maxx Williams (TE)
Williams is the best tight end prospect this year, although this is a weak class for tight ends. Williams is a more prototypical tight end, who does not possess great speed, as he ran a 4.78 forty-yard dash. He is still being projected as a potential late first round pick, and that could set him up very nicely. The best potential landing spot would be with the Broncos, who just lost Julius Thomas. While Maxx does not have the playmaking ability of Thomas, he is a good blocker, and with Peyton Manning at quarterback, he could find himself with decent rookie numbers. Other potential landing spots are New Orleans, Baltimore and Minnesota. If he lands with one of these teams, it would likely come as a second round draft pick, but he will have a good chance with both the Saints and Ravens whose offenses utilize the tight, and are actively looking for help at the position.
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