Jamie Calandro gives a preview of the 2015 Boston Red Sox.
Note: This piece is part of our article program that features quality content from experts. For more insight from Jamie at Fantasy Team Advice.
If any city needs baseball weather right now, it’s Boston! If you look at the pictures of the six-foot snow banks I’ll bet a lot of Red Sox fans would give a lot to be eating a Fenway Frank in the warm weather, so this post is dedicated to you (just FYI we’re back to being enemies once the season commences ;). As I stated in previous posts, I often find that looking at a team-by-team basis helps you find the best situations to target and eliminate a lot of white noise, so that’s what I’m here for – to offer you a breakdown of each team’s top players, busts, sleepers, and projections. With such a deep player pool and so many saber metrics to look at, taking each team into account individually is a nice approach. OK Sox fans, here’s what your team looks like this year…
PROJECTED LINEUP
1) Mookie Betts CF
2) Dustin Pedroia 2B
3) David Ortiz DH
4) Hanley Ramirez LF
5) Pablo Sandoval 3B
6) Rusney Castillo RF
7) Mike Napoli 1B
8) Xander Bogaerts SS
9) Christian Vazquez C
NOTES: This revamped lineup offers a ton of upside, but also carries significant injury risk. Hanley Ramirez is still a 20/20 threat if healthy, but he has missed 185 games over the past four seasons, with his only real full year coming in 2012 with the Marlins and Dodgers (only missed 5 games that year). Mike Napoli and Dustin Pedroia also missed time last year, and Pedroia will need to rectify his rising K% and declining BB% to keep up with his current ADP. A lot of Boston’s success will go as Mookie Betts goes. Earlier this preseason, I wrote a bold prediction article here claiming that Betts would be the most valuable fantasy player on the Red Sox this year, and I’m standing by that. Betts posted an .812 OPS with 5 HR, 7 SB, and 18 XBH in only 51 games last year, and his leadoff spot projects great opportunity.
PROJECTED ROTATION
1) Rick Porcello RHP
2) Wade Miley LHP
3) Clay Buchholz RHP
4) Justin Masterson RHP
5) Joe Kelly RHP
Projected closer – Koji Uehara RHP
NOTES: Talk about revamped! The only one of the five to be on Boston’s roster for a full season last year was Buchholz, and injuries even restricted him to 170 innings. I have my reservations about this rotation. Porcello posted decent numbers in Detroit last year (15 wins, 3.43 ERA, 3.78 xFIP), but he also had some very disturbing trends for fantasy. His 5.67 K/9 was a huge drop from his 7.22 mark the previous year, and the higher number is looking to be the outlier. His GB% also saw a significant decline (career is 52.1%, last year was 49.0%), and the park shift from Detroit to Boston is not going to do him any favors. Believe it or not, I actually view Miley as the higher-upside play at the top of this rotation. His K/9 was a healthy 8.18 last year, and a 3.50 xFIP suggests his 4.34 ERA has some very bad luck associated with it. Obviously the park shift doesn’t help him either, nor does moving out of the NL, but if given the choice in fantasy I’m going to take the guy who misses bats. Keep an eye on the closer situation as well. Uehara’s HR/FB% ballooned to 14.3%, and his GB% is only a career 32.1%. That coupled with his age (40 on opening day) makes him a prime candidate to lose his job at some point.
BLUE CHIP STUD
Hanley Ramirez, SS/OF
I know I just got done pointing out all the risks of taking Hanley, but the fact remains that he should still be the first Boston player off the board. In the recent LABR mixed draft, Hanley was taken with the third pick of the second round (18th overall), which means you have to pay if you want him. Yes, the injury risk looms, but he is still a five-category contributor who will return first round value if he can give you 140 games. The fact that he is in the AL gives him added safety as he can DH at times if David Ortiz misses games or sits against lefties. His .817 OPS in 2014 is solid, and his 1.014 OPS in 2013 is absolutely elite. Honestly, if Ian Desmond is there I strongly prefer him for his safety and similar counting stats, but if he’s gone I won’t argue locking up the most scarce position in the game. This also looks like the last time you may get him with SS eligibility.
BOUNCE BACK CANDIDATE
Mike Napoli, 1B
Naps is an insane value right now, and a good spring may make his draft stock skyrocket. Napoli missed a ton of games last year, but it was not due to a typical injury. He had sleep apnea (which, according to him, actually made him contemplate retirement), and has since had a bimaxillary advancement procedure to correct it. He is expected to be fully healthy for the 2015 season, and could be the steal of the draft at his ADP, which is currently right around the 17th round. Napoli has a career .850 OPS and .234 ISO, and you could actually be stealing 25 homers late in the draft when the cupboard seems bare.
SLEEPER
Mookie Betts, OF
First thing to keep in mind – Betts may have 2B eligibility based on where you play, which adds mountains of value to his already rising stock. With a regular leadoff spot, Betts could easily be in line for 100+ runs scored and 30 SB, and his .812 OPS suggests that he could also post some power numbers in hitter-friendly Boston. He had a 20.9% LD% in limited time last year, and that stat could produce immense upside with the Green Monster sitting there in left field. I’m all in.
PLAYER TO AVOID/BUST ALERT
Dustin Pedroia, 2B
Just to be clear, I am not calling Pedroia an all-out flop. I’m simply saying there is a lot of evidence to suggest he won’t come near his ADP, which is currently right around the late fourth/early fifth round. If you can get him later than that (Jake Ciely of Rotoexperts.com landed him at pick 6.05 of the LABR draft), I’m all for it, but don’t overspend. His BB% dropped to 8.4%, his K% rose to 12.3%, and his ISO and OPS were career lows of .098 and .712. With recurring injuries to his hand/wrist coupled with the fact that he is running less, I’d rather take someone with more upside around where he’s going.
LATE-ROUND FLIER
Wade Miley, SP
This echoes what I was saying before. Miley can currently be drafted as your sixth or seventh starting pitcher, which is fantastic value for someone with an 8.18 K/9 and 3.50 xFIP. He has averaged 200.3 IP over the last three seasons, and shattered his career high in strikeouts with 183 last year. His HR/9 rose to 1.03, and his HR/FB% rose to 13.9% (worrisome numbers), but at the point in the draft he is going you’re not looking for dynamite peripherals, just some extra K-upside, which Miley certainly brings.
PROSPECT WATCH
Matt Barnes, SP
Barnes is a prospect to keep an eye out for as early as the 2015 season. He pitched as a reliever when he debuted in the majors last year, but has been told by Boston management that he will be groomed as a starter in AAA. He needs to cut down on his walk rate immensely (3.24 BB% is AAA Pawtucket last year), but he has shown tremendous promise in making batters miss (career 10.18 K/9 in the minor leagues), and had a 3.47 FIP in his limited time in the majors. With a questionable back-end of the rotation in Masterson and Kelly, Barnes could get his shot this year.
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Jamie’s is the Lead Baseball Writer for Fantasy Team Advice. You can follow him on Twitter @jac3600.
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