Andrew Wiggins has led this year’s rookie class
The deeper we get into the NBA season, the better the 2014-15 rookie class gets. As the All-Star break approaches, this is the time of year when teams realize if they are contenders or lottery-bound. Teams like Boston, New York, and Denver have already started selling veterans to make way for the youth movement, ala Philadelphia. With six decent fantasy options, and a couple more rising, the rookies are going to have a bigger fantasy impact down the stretch. Now is the time to see who can help your squad and where they rank.
Andrew Wiggins, SF, Minnesota Timberwolves: If there were any questions before about who should be leading the Rookie of the Year race, Wiggins has answered those in force. In his last 11 games, Wiggins has nine 20-plus point scoring nights. He is averaging 21.4 points per game in 2015. The Timberwolves forward has not only cemented himself as the top rookie, but has ranked in the top 10 for scoring in the entire NBA the past two weeks. Also after struggling to climb over 40 percent shooting most of the season, Wiggins has made over 48 percent of his shots in the last 10 games to boost his field goal percentage to a season-high 42.3 percent. With his usage rate staying steady at 20.6 percent, Wiggins has simply made better decisions and increased his overall efficiency in the last two weeks. Leading all rookies with over 32 minutes played per game, Wiggins will get plenty of opportunities to prove why he was the No. 1 overall pick in the 2014 NBA Draft.
(Average over last 10 games) 20.3 points, 4.8 rebounds, and 2.6 assists in 37.4 minutes per game
Nikola Mirotic, PF, Chicago Bulls: If only there was a starting position for Mirotic in Chicago, he would be making a compelling case for No. 1 or at least 1a with Wiggins. Mirotic took home the Eastern Conference Rookie of the Month award while only playing 19.1 minutes per game in December. Despite placing 12th in minutes played, Mirotic ranks fifth in scoring, rebounds, and blocks per game for all rookies. Shooting 34 percent over his last 10 games will not help earn more playing time for the 6’10” rookie. Being a work-in-progress on the defensive end limits Mirotic’s floor time late in games as well. With Joakim Noah possibly suffering a serious ankle injury Wednesday against the Wizards, Mirotic will be in line to pick up more minutes as the primary backup in the Chicago front court. He averages 16.0 points and 9.9 rebounds per 36 minutes played, so Mirotic will get a chance to show what he can do with Noah missing at least a couple of games.
(Average over last 10 games) 7.5 points, 4.1 rebounds, and .8 three-pointers in 18.2 minutes per game
Jusuf Nurkic, C, Denver Nuggets: The 16th overall pick in 2014, Nurkic has burst on to the scene since getting serious minutes in place of Timofey Mozgov. Nurkic performed so well, the Nuggets felt Mozgov was expendable and shipped him to Cleveland to open up more time for Nurkic. In the past two weeks, Nurkic has been the second-best rookie in fantasy and a top 50 option overall. Since Dec. 30, Nurkic has played 20-plus minutes per game and blocked two or more shots in all seven games played. The 6’11” center is averaging 11.7 points, 7.9 rebounds, and 3.0 blocks in those last seven games. Nurkic will undoubtedly move into second place on this list if he keeps up this pace for the rest of the year.
(Average over last 10 games) 9.6 points, 6.9 rebounds, and 2.3 blocks in 19.4 minutes per game
Nerlens Noel, PF, Philadelphia 76ers: Despite registering double-digit points in three of his last five games, Noel continues to struggle on offense. Shooting 39 percent from the floor for a power forward is unheard of, but that is exactly what Noel has done his last 10 games. Lacking a jump shot of any kind, Noel is too dependent on putbacks and dunks to score points. Such a shame for a defensive beast like Noel, as he continues to lead all rookies in rebounds, steals, and blocks. He has even cut down on his turnovers. He’s averaged 2.2 turnovers per game on the year, but in the last four games he has managed to turn it over only three times. If Noel is going to climb back up these rankings, he needs to improve his 49 percent free throw shooting percentage as well. Until that happens, his fantasy value will keep declining.
(Average over last 10 games) 7.5 points, 7.4 rebounds, and 1.6 blocks in 30.1 minutes per game
Elfrid Payton, PG, Orlando Magic: The most productive of all rookie point guards, Payton has been too inconsistent in the last couple weeks to stomach on your fantasy squad. He will have a game with Rondo-esque numbers (16 points, 10 assists, and 9 rebounds against the Nets on Jan. 2), but will follow it up by averaging 3.7 points while shooting 27 percent in his following three games. That is not even to mention his sub-50 percent free throw percentage on the season. On the plus side, he still leads all rookies in assists, ranks second in steals, and logs the third most minutes. Payton is also only 20 years old and should continue to improve as an NBA point guard in the second half.
(Average over last 10 games) 8.4 points, 6.2 assists, 4.8 rebounds, and 1.8 steals in 31.2 minutes per game
Just missed out:
K.J. McDaniels, PHI: Started seven of last eight games, putting up 11 points per game in last six appearances.
Marcus Smart, BOS: Finally starting to click, averaging 29 mins, 8.8 points, 4.3 assists, 3.5 rebounds, and 1.8 threes in past four games.
Tarik Black, LAL: Averaging 8.5 points and 6.8 rebounds in the four games he has played since joining the Lakers.
Bojan Bogdanovic, BKN: Grabbed his starting spot back, scoring 12.6 points in the three games since returning.
Langston Galloway, NYK: Small three-game sample size, but dropping 11.3 points and 1.3 threes per game
Currently injured:
Aaron Gordon, ORL
Doug McDermott, CHI
Dale Redman is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Dale, check out his archive and follow him @fantasytool.
