Luke Kuechly and the Carolina Panthers take on the point friendly Bucs
Dylan Lerch has been writing his Defense Wins Championships column for three straight seasons, and each installment can be found at Empeopled.com every Tuesday morning. You can follow him @dtlerch.
Losing is never easy. It’s never “okay”. It never feels good. For the rest of the year, the loser of every game is done. No mas. Best of luck in 2015.
But losing will still happen to most of us, despite our best efforts. To minimize tilt, remember:
1. Prior to kickoff, with the information you had, did you choose the right starters? If so, you should have no regret.
2. Even the right choices lose some of the time.
3. Making the wrong choice is always wrong, even when it wins.
Easier said than done, of course. But whether you’re playing in your only money league, grinding out dozens of 50/50’s every week, or anything in between, it’s best to always keep in mind.
And for those of us who started the 49ers or the Saints this past weekend, I sure hope the rest of your teams managed to step up big time! Last week’s #3 and #7 ranked choices combined to score just -6 points. It should be no surprise: an algorithm based in large part on Vegas spreads won’t predict D/ST outcomes very well when a large underdog not only beats the spread, but wins outright! The Raiders were 8.5 point underdogs. The Panthers were +9.5 themselves.
St. Louis continued their master class another week, and they kept pace with top scoring NYG. It’s clear that the algorithm may under rank them going forward to some extent, given their recent trends. I would feel very comfortable starting the Rams in an elimination game in Weeks 15 or 16.
Of last week’s top 10, Houston (11 points), Detroit (15), Minnesota (10), Denver (8), St. Louis (24), and Arizona (9) were all at expectation or better. San Francisco (1 point), New Orleans (-8), Miami (-1), and Philadelphia (3) were all huge disappointments.
San Diego, Carolina, Cleveland, Buffalo, and Oakland were among D/STs that scored above average, and all but Buffalo scored 9+. I think it’s safe to say that no one is questioning whether any of these bad D/STs in bad spots were worth starting. The most interesting question is with the NYG: Will the Giants D/ST, Week 14’s top scorer, be worth starting in Week 15?
It’s playoff time! Get excited, get a win, or I hope you have a plan for the offseason…
Week 15 D/ST Scoring (ESPN Standard Scoring)
*The projections lean heavily on the work of Vegas oddsmakers to get a realistic idea of a raw scoring expectation for each team. Then, the normal D/ST components (sacks, turnovers, and D/ST touchdowns) are projected based on matchup and combined with Vegas to come up with a final number. The projection represents an “Expected Value,” or the weighted sum of all outcomes across the scoring range.
1. Seattle Seahawks D/ST, 12.6 points vs. San Francisco
2. Baltimore Ravens D/ST, 12.4 vs. Jacksonville
3. Kansas City Chiefs D/ST, 10.0 vs. Oakland
4. Carolina Panthers D/ST, 9.7 vs. Tampa Bay
5. Detroit Lions D/ST, 9.2 vs. Minnesota
6. St. Louis Rams D/ST, 8.3 vs. Arizona
7. New York Giants D/ST, 8.2 vs. Washington
8. New England Patriots D/ST, 6.9 vs. Miami
9. New York Jets D/ST, 6.7 at Tennessee
10. Indianapolis Colts D/ST, 6.0 vs. Houston
11. Cleveland Browns D/ST, 6.0 vs. Cincinnati
12. Arizona Cardinals D/ST, 5.5 at St. Louis
13. Green Bay Packers D/ST, 5.4 at Buffalo
14. Denver Broncos D/ST, 5.0 at San Diego
15. Tennessee Titans D/ST, 4.7 vs. NY Jets
16. Tampa Bay Buccaneers D/ST, 4.5 at Carolina
17. Philadelphia Eagles D/ST, 4.5 vs. Dallas
18. Cincinnati Bengals D/ST, 3.3 at Cleveland
19. San Francisco 49ers D/ST, 3.2 at Seattle
20. Minnesota Vikings D/ST, 2.6 at Detroit
21. New Orleans Saints D/ST, 1.8 at Chicago
22. Houston Texans D/ST, 1.6 at Indianapolis
23. Buffalo Bills D/ST, 1.6 vs. Green Bay
24. Washington Redskins D/ST, 1.4 at NY Giants
25. Pittsburgh Steelers D/ST, 1.3 at Atlanta
26. Chicago Bears D/ST, 1.3 vs. New Orleans
27. Atlanta Falcons D/ST, 1.1 vs. Pittsburgh
28. Oakland Raiders D/ST, 1.0 at Kansas City
29. Miami Dolphins D/ST, 0.1 at New England
30. San Diego Chargers D/ST, -0.3 vs. Denver
31. Dallas Cowboys D/ST, -0.5 at Philadelphia
32. Jacksonville Jaguars D/ST, -1.0 at Baltimore
Tier 1: Seattle and Baltimore
They took their sweet time, but the Seattle Seahawks finally look like they’re hitting their stride from 2013. The Seahawks have three consecutive scores of 11+ and in 5 of their last 7. It’s hard to attribute the change of fortune to guys coming back from injury or from normal regression, but I’d probably assume it’s a little bit of both. This week they face a 49ers team that appears to be in free fall, and the books have them scoring less than 14 points – perhaps the lowest team total on the season so far among all teams? It doesn’t sound as bold as it would have six weeks ago, but I would start the Seahawks over every other option this week.
However, Baltimore keeps pace with Seattle quite nice and should not be seen as a huge step down in quality. The Jaguars fade at this point should be obvious, and the Ravens D/ST have been a respectable option for most of the season, scoring 10+ 4 times and only 4 times scoring below league average! Expect the Jaguars to struggle to 17 points on the day, and for the Ravens D/ST to have an excellent chance for multiple interceptions or a D/ST TD.
Tier 2: Kansas City, Carolina, Detroit, St. Louis
Four weeks ago, San Diego had their home rematch against the Raiders after getting beaten on the road in Oakland. They improved from 0 D/ST points and a loss in Week 6 to 10 D/ST points and a dominating win 5 weeks later. Kansas City, who have struggled of late, but have two monster scores on the year, get their own rematch this week and I expect similar results. The Chiefs have not been racking up the D/ST metrics as well as they should, considering their scoring defense has been pretty good – they have just 4 interceptions and 9 turnovers!
Those of us who stashed the Lions D/ST are finally reaping the rewards. Even if we got away from them in Week 13 vs. Chicago, virtually all of us should have started them last week for 15 points and again this week against Minnesota to close out a rare three-game homestand. Bridgewater will be forced to throw, and Detroit should be able to threaten multiple turnovers and a ton of pressure on the young QB.
The St. Louis Rams are almost their own case. I would have a very hard time sitting them for anybody, including the Tier 1 D/STs, after pitching their second consecutive shutout. However, it’s important to remember that the Cardinals have not been a good matchup for D/STs this year, and have only conceded 10+ points to an opposing D/ST once (Seattle). They’ve dealt out multiple scores of 2 or less, and have shown that “backup QB” doesn’t always mean “fade at all costs”.
The Carolina Panthers are sure to make some of us quite nervous through Sunday. For sure, this play is more of a Bucs fade than it is an endorsement of the hapless Panthers. However, the Bucs have been one of the most generous teams to face on the season, and this game will be played in Carolina. Look for turnovers: the projection model suggests that the Bucs are looking at the most turnovers of any team this weekend, and Vegas has them struggling to score far past 17. It may not be for the faint of heart, but the Panthers are not owned in most leagues and project as a strong high risk/high reward play in Week 15.
Using the projection model and a little adjustment for confidence, risk aversion, and sample sizes, we’re left with the following start order:
1. Seattle Seahawks
2. Baltimore Ravens
3. Kansas City Chiefs
4. Detroit Lions
5. St. Louis Rams
6. Carolina Panthers
7. New York Giants
8. New England Patriots
9. Indianapolis Colts
10. New York Jets
11. Arizona Cardinals
12. Green Bay Packers
13. Cleveland Browns
14. Tennessee Titans
Note, as usual, that this list may differ slightly from the projection rankings!
Best of luck in Week 15 for those of us still alive.
