The Minnesota Vikings wreaked havoc for opponents in fantasy last week
Dylan Lerch has been writing his Defense Wins Championships column for three straight seasons, and each installment can be found at Empeopled.com every Tuesday morning. You can follow him @dtlerch.
Nine defense/special teams TDs were scored in the NFL in Week 13, far more than usual. For many of us, it will have been a somewhat frustrating week, with 1/3 of them going to Jacksonville and Tennessee, unlikely to have been started in any league. Two more went to our 12th ranked Minnesota, and one each to 3rd ranked Indianapolis, 4th ranked Buffalo, 6th ranked St. Louis, and 8th ranked Arizona. Miami probably led to the most disappointment, and rightly so: with a barely above-average score of 7, the consensus #1 D/ST in Week 13 (and our number one here) fell far short of the mark.
Some of us will have been lucky to have started the Rams, although ranking them 6th last week behind teams that scored 7, 11, 11, 17, and 9 is certainly a disappointment. Jacksonville was pegged as playable, but I doubt anybody was able to capitalize.
As always, we look toward next week. Let’s try to stack the deck a little first!
Week 14 D/ST Scoring (ESPN Standard Scoring)
*The projections lean heavily on the work of Vegas oddsmakers to get a realistic idea of a raw scoring expectation for each team. Then, the normal D/ST components (sacks, turnovers, and D/ST touchdowns) are projected based on matchup and combined with Vegas to come up with a final number. The projection represents an “Expected Value,” or the weighted sum of all outcomes across the scoring range.
1. Houston Texans D/ST, 10.8 at Jacksonville
2. Detroit Lions D/ST, 10.7 vs Tampa Bay
3. San Francisco 49ers D/ST, 9.7 at Oakland
4. Minnesota Vikings D/ST, 9.0 vs New York Jets
5. Denver Broncos D/ST, 7.7 vs Buffalo
6. St. Louis Rams D/ST, 6.7 at Washington
7. New Orleans Saints D/ST, 6.5 vs Carolina
8. Arizona Cardinals D/ST, 6.5 vs Kansas City
9. Miami Dolphins D/ST, 6.3 vs Baltimore
10. Philadelphia Eagles D/ST, 6.1 vs Seattle
11. Green Bay Packers D/ST, 5.8 vs Atlanta
12. Indianapolis Colts D/ST, 5.8 at Cleveland
13. New York Giants D/ST, 5.3 at Tennessee
14. Jacksonville Jaguars D/ST, 5.3 vs Texans
15. Kansas City Chiefs D/ST, 5.2 at Arizona
16. Baltimore Ravens D/ST, 5.2 at Miami
17. New England Patriots D/ST, 4.7 at San Diego
18. Cincinnati Bengals D/ST, 4.7 vs Pittsburgh
19. Washington Redskins D/ST, 4.6 vs St. Louis
20. New York Jets D/ST, 4.1 at Minnesota
21. Dallas Cowboys D/ST, 4.1 at Chicago
22. Seattle Seahawks D/ST, 3.8 at Philadelphia
23. Tennessee Titans D/ST, 3.8 vs New York Giants
24. Chicago Bears D/ST, 3.0 vs Dallas
25. Tampa Bay Buccaneers D/ST, 2.8 at Detroit
26. Oakland Raiders D/ST, 2.5 vs San Francisco
27. Cleveland Browns D/ST, 1.6 vs Indianapolis
28. Pittsburgh Steelers D/ST, 1.5 at Cincinnati
29. Buffalo Bills D/ST, 0.7 at Denver
30. Carolina Panthers D/ST, 0.2 at New Orleans
31. San Diego Chargers D/ST, -0.4 vs New England
32. Atlanta Falcons D/ST, -4.6 at Green Bay
Tier 1: Houston, Detroit
It’s hard not to like the Houston Texans defense right now. The answer to just about any question about them usually focuses on just a single player: J.J. Watt. Watt’s individual stat line thus far in 2014 has been absolutely filthy: 11.5 sacks, 3 FF, 5 FR, 2 TDs (and 3 more receiving TDs!), and an interception. PFF lists him with 33 QB Hits and 35 QB Hurries, not to mention an intimidating presence in the run game too.
In short, Watt is far and away the best defensive player alive today, and he highlights a Texans team that’s primed to take advantage of the best D/ST matchup in the league once more. They’re generous even in wins, with the Giants D/ST last week managing 9 points even as they fell to the Jaguars. The Texans are on the road, but they’re still favored by 4.5.
Meanwhile, the Detroit Lions are in the enviable situation of facing Tampa Bay at home! The Buccaneers are rated by DVOA to have a bottom 3 offense, and Vegas concurs: Tampa Bay has the lowest scoring outlook on the board this weekend, and Detroit is a strong enough D/ST to take advantage of that! Tampa’s offense has been taken advantage of by D/STs all year long, and they have been the third most profitable fade (behind Jacksonville and St. Louis).
It should be no surprise to see the Texans and Lions at the top here. Detroit profiles as the safer choice, while Houston profiles as having potentially higher risk/reward.
Tier 2: San Francisco, Minnesota
The 49ers D/ST sit in the bottom of the second tier for scoring on the year with 95 points, so a matchup against the Raiders, even on the road, is going to be profitable. Last week’s game against the Rams should be all the proof you need of that! This week’s Raiders game has the lowest full-game scoring total on the board, and they’re looking at just a slightly higher scoring outlook than the similarly-pathetic Buccaneers. They’ve been the fifth best D/ST matchup on the season, and have only allowed two bad D/ST scores all year long.
The Vikings D/ST gets their lone crack at the NY Jets, and they get them in Minnesota. In theory, the Vikings should enjoy a very large expectation this weekend. In Week 13, the Jets ran the ball 49 times to just 13 pass attempts. They were able to take an early lead and just take the ball out of Geno Smith’s hands entirely, a strategy that I expect would be much less effective on the road! Thus, I wouldn’t be the least bit worried about the matchup, even given Miami’s relatively disappointing score of 7.
Sadly, if your leagues are like any of mine, the aforementioned D/STs will have been stashed for weeks. Time to look a little deeper. For streamers, the following are deeper-league targets that should be available in most leagues:
New Orleans Saints
The Panthers have been one of the best matchups in the league for D/STs, virtually on par with the other great fades and just 2 points per game behind Jacksonville. The Saints have been one of the worst D/STs all year. At the very least, we should be able to expect a few sacks from the Saints, especially if they can take an early lead. Fun fact: if the Saints had as many D/ST TDs as the Eagles, they would rank in the top 12. As it stands, their complete lack of TDs has made them look worse than they really are (but they’re still pretty bad).
Indianapolis Colts
Perhaps the Colts will be harder to find on waiver wires after two good matchups the last two weeks, but if not, they could make a very solid start this week for streamers. The Browns are currently in a bit of turmoil on offense, although it’s important to note that the Vegas scoring total is somewhat higher than we’d normally be comfortable with. That’s balanced out in part by a Colts team that has forced more fumbles than any other, and they’re now among the league leaders in sacks too.
The St. Louis Rams sure look like they’ve turned the corner. I said last week that I wanted one more solid game from St. Louis, and they exceeded every expectation against Oakland!
The Jacksonville Jaguars show up in the top 16 for the second consecutive week, this time two spots higher than in Week 13.
The Kansas City Chiefs project as being an unusually safe choice this weekend given their relatively low ranking.
Taking into account both the projection model and the eye test, I’d probably start streamers among other D/STs in the following order:
1. Houston Texans
2. Detroit Lions
3. San Francisco 49ers
4. Minnesota Vikings
5. St. Louis Rams
6. Denver Broncos
7. Miami Dolphins
8. New Orleans Saints
9. Arizona Cardinals
10. Philadelphia Eagles
11. Green Bay Packers
12. Indianapolis Colts
13. Jacksonville Jaguars
14. Kansas City Chiefs
St. Louis, Denver, and Miami are the most difficult of these to order.
Many of us might have space on the bench for a second D/ST, so in particular look at Baltimore, Detroit, St. Louis, Kansas City, and Carolina if you would like to get a jump on the waiver wire for Week 15.
Thank you for reading! Best of luck in Week 14.
