The Dolphins’ D/ST will take on the Jets’ struggling offense in Week 13, making them a top matchup
Dylan Lerch has been writing his Defense Wins Championships column for three straight seasons, and each installment can be found at Empeopled.com every Tuesday morning. You can follow him @dtlerch.
Week 12 is in the books and, once again, it was an extremely kind week to a majority of D/ST streamers. Five of the week’s double digit D/ST scores were in our top 7, and seven were in our top 12. The week’s most disappointing performance belonged to Kansas City, who managed just 2 points against the Oakland Raiders. Thankfully, Defense Wins Championships readers would have been much more likely to get away from the consensus #1 D/ST than most; here, they were rated just 6th. Overall, the algorithm’s top 10 D/ST recommendations scored on average 1 point better than the expert consensus.
Once again, the week was dominated by matchups. The Colts, ranked 19th on the season going into the week, scored 15 D/ST points against the Jaguars. The Bears, ranked 20th on the season, also scored 15 D/ST points. The league-leading Dolphins, however, finished in the red with -5 at Denver. I sure hope you sat Miami this past weekend! When we’re lucky, both circumstances collide and you have a play like Buffalo (23 points) or Philadelphia (16 points).
But no matter how well our D/ST scored in Week 12, it’s time to reset the scoreboards and do it all again.
Week 13 D/ST Scoring (ESPN Standard Scoring)
*The projections lean heavily on the work of Vegas oddsmakers to get a realistic idea of a raw scoring expectation for each team. Then, the normal D/ST components (sacks, turnovers, and D/ST touchdowns) are projected based on matchup and combined with Vegas to come up with a final number. The projection represents an “Expected Value,” or the weighted sum of all outcomes across the scoring range.
1. Miami Dolphins D/ST, 9.4, at NY Jets
2. Houston Texans D/ST, 9.4, vs Tennessee
3. Indianapolis Colts D/ST, 8.5, vs Washington
4. Buffalo Bills D/ST, 7.9, vs Cleveland
5. New York Giants D/ST, 7.9, at Jacksonville
6. St. Louis Rams D/ST, 7.6, vs Oakland
7. Baltimore Ravens D/ST, 7.4, vs San Diego
8. Detroit Lions D/ST, 7.2, vs Chicago
9. Cincinnati Bengals D/ST, 7.0, at Tampa Bay
10. Seattle Seahawks D/ST, 7.0, at San Francisco
11. San Francisco 49ers D/ST, 7.0, vs Seattle
12. Minnesota Vikings D/ST, 6.5, vs Carolina
13. Carolina Panthers D/ST, 6.5, at Minnesota
14. Arizona Cardinals D/ST, 6.3, at Atlanta
15. Cleveland Browns D/ST, 5.7, at Buffalo
16. Jacksonville Jaguars D/ST, 4.9, vs NY Giants
17. Denver Broncos D/ST, 3.6, at Kansas City
18. Atlanta Falcons D/ST, 3.6, vs Arizona
19. New York Jets D/ST, 3.5, vs Miami
20. Chicago Bears D/ST, 3.5, at Detroit
21. Tampa Bay Buccaneers D/ST, 3.3, vs Cincinnati
22. Pittsburgh Steelers D/ST, 2.9, vs New Orleans
23. Tennessee Titans D/ST, 2.7, at Houston
24. San Diego Chargers D/ST, 2.7, at Baltimore
25. Oakland Raiders D/ST, 2.6, at St. Louis
26. Dallas Cowboys D/ST, 2.6, vs Philadelphia
27. Kansas City Chiefs D/ST, 2.3, vs Denver
28. Philadelphia Eagles D/ST, 2.2, at Dallas
29. Green Bay Packers D/ST, 0.7, vs New England
30. New Orleans Saints D/ST, 0.7, at Pittsburgh
31. New England Patriots D/ST, -1.9, at Green Bay
32. Washington Redskins D/ST -2.1, at Indianapolis
On Bye: Nobody – all systems go
Tier 1: Miami and Houston
The Miami Dolphins should be no surprise to anybody at the top of the list. Their opponent, NYJ, just gave up 23 D/ST points to the very similarly-profiled Buffalo Bills on a neutral field. With Geno Smith finishing the game off for the Jets, it’s anybody’s guess as to who will be lining up under center – and it’s either great or greater for Miami. The Dolphins, for their part, have been a top tier D/ST for most of the second half of the season so far. They’re also much more well-rounded than they appeared going into the year, with 31 sacks, 10 interceptions, and 12 fumbles forced. All three are in the upper ranks of the league. The Jets, meanwhile, continue to pay off like a slot machine to opposing D/STs, leaving the Dolphins as the clear cut number one choice in Week 13.
The Houston Texans, meanwhile, have been one of the more up-and-down teams in the league. They’ve shown they can come out and play competitively in almost every week thus far, but have come up short in more than half of them. They’ve also got the most valuable defensive player in the NFL, J.J. Watt, who somehow has found himself with the second-most TDs on the team behind only Arian Foster. Despite having a below average scoring defense, the Texans D/ST has found themselves with a pretty decent scoring floor thanks to Watt. The Texans’ opponent, meanwhile, have conceded an average score or better in all but two weeks this year, including Philadelphia’s 16 points last week.
Taking our cues from Vegas as always, both teams at the top are looking at allowing ~18.5 points, well within the ideal range for a top tier play.
Tier 2: Indianapolis, Buffalo, and NY Giants
At first glance, the Colts are an enigma. They’ve gotten four negative scores and five scores of 12+. However, a deeper look reveals some consistency: their four negative scores were against four very good offenses (New England, Denver, Philadelphia, and Pittsburgh). Their five big scores were all against Jacksonville or at home (@ Jacksonville, vs. Jacksonville, vs. Baltimore, vs. Tennessee, vs. Cincinnati). This week they get one of the league’s better D/ST matchups, the Redskins, at home. RGIII still hasn’t found his stride yet, and the Redskins have given up two 20+ D/ST scores this year and three more of 12+. Taken on their own, none of these circumstances would assure a strong projection; however, taken in tandem with one another and with Indianapolis playing at home, we can feel pretty safe for a repeat of the Colts’ Week 12 thrashing.
The Buffalo Bills led the league in scoring in Week 12 and are a top 3 unit on the season. What can we expect when Brian Hoyer, Josh Gordon, and the Cleveland Browns come to town? For one, Vegas has this game as a little higher-scoring than I would normally be comfortable with, and the Browns could be looking at as many as 20-21 points of expectation on the day. However, the Bills have by far the most effective pass rush in the league, becoming the first team to 40 sacks and leading number two Philadelphia by 8. They’ve also been among the league leaders in turnovers for a second straight season.
And finally, we get to the NY Giants. This is not a play for the faint of heart. The Giants have been bad: one of the league’s worst pass rushes, scoring defenses, and a middling turnover profile. They’ve also scored the second fewest D/ST points in the league… but as I’ve been preaching for the last three seasons, matchups are king, and the Jaguars have been the greatest matchup in the game all season long. Nine of their eleven opponents have scored 10+ points, and the other two scores were 7 and 8! The Jaguars offensive line has been giving Bortles trouble all season, and that should continue in Week 13, with the Giants looking at upwards of 3 sacks of expectation. Be warned however, the Giants profile to give up more points to the Jaguars than any team in the top 12 this week. This might finally be the week that the Jaguars punish an opposing D/ST; but there’s still plenty of value to be found if not.
A curious note, the Bills and Giants projection is tied to 5 decimal places. In three years, I’ve never seen that happen before! I suspect that’s more precision than the model can even handle, and so the two can be considered as dead even.
Tier 3 and below
The Rams make an excellent play this weekend, and they profile as the best scoring defense on the board this weekend against an anemic Raiders offense.
Watch how the Vegas spread and total react between now and Thursday for the Seahawks/49ers Thanksgiving tilt. When the spread is a pk’em as this is (which means neither team is favored), the spread is more sensitive to movement. It is safe to say that whichever team ends up being favored by kickoff will be the better D/ST in the game.
Fantasy GMs will have squeezed out the last remaining value in San Diego and Chicago. They can safely be dropped if they hadn’t been already. New England and Green Bay, however, have a couple of great matchups each remaining. Neither can be started this weekend, but both should be kept on the bench in many cases.
Speaking of Chicago, they’ve been a popular D/ST fade in recent weeks due to their struggling offense. With Detroit at home, many experts will advocate starting the Lions. However, I recommend caution, as with every fade of a struggling high-powered offense like Chicago. In each case, the numbers suggest a likely regression, and that would mean trouble for opposing D/STs. Start the Lions at your own risk! Here, they rank in the top 10 almost by default, but their scoring projection is hardly above average.
Denver keeps getting ranked in the top 8 in consensus rankings. I don’t understand it, and the Broncos continue to score in the bottom-half of D/STs. With a road game in Week 13, I suspect they’ll be a let down again, regardless of where consensus rankings have them.
The Jaguars are actually playable this week in 16-team leagues. Fancy that! They probably won’t make it easy on the eyes, but Jacksonville has put up 33 sacks on the season (a surprising third overall!)
Thank you for reading, and best of luck in Week 13!
