Billy Hamilton may be the fastest man in baseball. But can he get on-base enough to stay in the lineup?
With Spring Training underway, now is a good time to take stock of how early fantasy drafts are playing out. If you’re a fan of our free Mock Draft Simulator, you know you can run mocks in a matter of minutes to get some easy practice in before your big day. And, of course, our ADP Composite provides another way to check in on where players are currently getting picked.
However you go about it, it’s good to prepare in advance for situations you may face during your real draft. Doing so increases your odds of picking the right player at the right time. With this in mind, we asked a few experts to tell us which hitters and pitchers fantasy owners should be wary of at their current ADP. These are players the experts feel are going off draft boards too early.
Overvalued Hitters
ADP: #64 All | #47 H | #24 OF
What’s your take: Is he overvalued?
“There is a youngster going about 2-3 rounds earlier than he should, and it’s Billy Hamilton. I get the allure. Speed galore. However, even while I have him pegged for 60-plus stolen bases, it comes with a mediocre average, decent/not-great run production and a mediocre RBI total. I would take Jason Heyward over Hamilton every time, and then again just for good measure. Don’t get sucked in based on his speed alone.”
“Hamilton’s speed is simply unfair. If he can get to first base, he’s practically hit a double by default. He’ll kill your average, but it’ll be worth it for the steals and runs… until he’s taken out of the Reds’ lineup, and relegated to pinch running duties, or optioned to AAA. I don’t see Hamilton’s on-base abilities as being strong enough to stick as an every day starter. He is too much of a risk to draft where he’s currently being drafted.”
ADP: #44 All | #35 H | #16 OF
What’s your take: Is he overvalued?
“Judging by his ADP, I probably won’t have Hunter Pence on any of my fake teams this season. His return to fantasy prominence in 2013 was a great story, but those career-highs in home runs and stolen bases have inflated his price tag a bit too much for me. Pass on Pence and target some of the undervalued outfielders currently going behind him in drafts like Starling Marte, Matt Holliday, Wil Myers, Jason Heyward, Carlos Beltran, Domonic Brown, and Michael Cuddyer.”
– Greg Smith (The Fake Baseball)
ADP: #52 All | #39 H | #19 OF
What’s your take: Is he overvalued?
“Currently, the most overvalued hitter is Mark Trumbo. I like Trumbo’s immense power potential, but his numbers from last year are eerily similar to those of Pedro Alvarez (whose ADP is twenty spots lower). While Trumbo’s power could see a slight increase, I would prefer to wait two rounds for someone like Alvarez who, at the end of the day, will put up the same type of numbers.”
ADP: #30 All | #26 H | #12 OF
What’s your take: Is he overvalued?
“I feel like the drafting community is a little high on Jose Bautista – at ADP 26 among hitters (12th among outfielders). I understand the argument for his upside (on display in his first Spring Training game with a mash over the left field wall) but he has played just 210 games over the last two seasons. With two straight seasons of ISO and HR/FB decline, along with the injuries, Bautista appears to be on the wrong end of his career arc – his upside is likely 2013′s numbers expanded over 150 games while his downside is continued loss in these areas and a number of missed games which is something I’m not interested in early in round three.”
– Jon Collins (Fantasy Sports LR)
Overvalued Pitchers
ADP: #38 All | #7 P | #1 RP
What’s your take: Is he overvalued?
“The pitcher that is being overvalued the most in fantasy drafts at this point is Craig Kimbrel. Obviously, Kimbrel is a machine, but he is also a closer. There is no way that I would draft him ahead of Felix Hernandez, Cliff Lee, or Madison Bumgarner. While he is the best option at his position, passing up aces that will throw 200-plus innings for a reliever–no matter how good he is–is ludicrous.”
ADP: #80 All | #21 P | #6 RP
What’s your take: Is he overvalued?
“In general I tend to undervalue the elite closers relative to starting pitchers and other positions but I’ll give the top tier a pass. I’d like to focus on Koji Uehara at pitcher ADP 21 and 80th overall. I am fully aware of the dominance exhibited last season in both standard Roto categories and in his peripheral stats, but he’ll be 39 years old very shortly and has just 35 career saves across parts of five seasons – a number that 14 pitchers topped last season alone. There are no indications that Uehara will falter, but the sample size as an elite closer is far too limited for me to invest this early.”
– Jon Collins (Fantasy Sports LR)
ADP: #50 All | #12 P | #11 SP
What’s your take: Is he overvalued?
“Verlander has been great over the last 5 years, but he appears to be a pitcher in transition. As he loses speed on his fastball, he’s throwing it less and less in lieu of his change-up. He dealt with control issues last year, posting a BB/9 over 3.00. He’s still a very quality pitcher, but I’d rather take somebody in the 4th or 5th round that is trending in the opposite direction.”
ADP: #5 All | #1 P | #1 SP
What’s your take: Is he overvalued?
“The short answer is “all of them”, but to really drive that point home, I’ll tag Clayton Kershaw as the most overvalued. Competitive fake baseballers can’t afford to spend their first or even second-round pick on a pitcher. It’s crucial to cement one’s offense in the early rounds with statistically elite performers. Kershaw is certainly elite, but his stats aren’t guaranteed to be much, if at all better than the hurlers available in rounds three through six. Meanwhile, bats like Chris Davis, Carlos Gonzalez, Adam Jones, et al are irreplaceable. ”
– Greg Smith (The Fake Baseball)
ADP: #74 All | #18 P | #14 SP
What’s your take: Is he overvalued?
“When you say “shoulder” and it’s in a sentence about a pitcher, your stomach should start to turn. Cole Hamels was one of my favorite, yearly undervalued pitchers. This year, the tables are turned, as Hamels showed up to camp with tendinitis and is just starting to throw. It’s likely that Hamels won’t be ready for the season, and even so, I can’t take him within the Top 20 starters, let alone Top 20 pitchers overall. The last thing you want is your ace or high-end No. 2 lost to a shoulder injury.”
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Thanks to the experts for sharing their advice with us. If you’d like to get more of their thoughts, be sure to follow them on Twitter and visit their sites:
| Jake Ciely | Follow @allinkid |
| Greg Smith | Follow @gregsauce |
| Tim Young | Follow @timcyoung |
| Jon Collins | Follow @checkdownNFL |
| David Kerr | Follow @AskROTObaseball |