Christine Michael has all the makings of a star. But will he get the opportunity this season? Photo Source: AP
If you’re looking for running back sleepers, then you’ve come to the right place! We’ve asked the most accurate running back experts in the industry to select their favorite RB sleeper, and to tell us why each player has the potential to be a draft day bargain. Each expert who participated finished in the top 25 (out of 100+) in our running back draft accuracy last season. If you’re curious, you can learn more about how all of the experts fared in the competition by checking out our accuracy report. In the meantime, let’s take a look at the surprise players the pundits like for this season.
Q: Who is your top running back sleeper for 2013 and why?
ECR: RB64 | ADP: RB66
“It’s hard not to get excited about what this player brings to the table even as a rookie. He is a great fit to run behind this talented offensive line in Seattle. If Lynch were to miss time, Michael would likely be a top 10 RB the rest of the way (and possibly a lot better than this). When taking late shots at RB, this is exactly the kind of player you should be targeting.” – David Dodds (FootballGuys)
ECR: RB37 | ADP: RB37
“Arian Foster’s injury status heading into the third week of the preseason only makes Tate that much more attractive. He could end up as this year’s C.J. Spiller as a backup running back who could earn Top 10 status if the starter in front of him goes down. And even if Foster is healthy, Tate could still be a flex option as we saw in 2011 when he had over 1,000 total yards and four touchdowns.” – Jamey Eisenberg (CBS Sports)
ECR: RB52 | ADP: RB54
“The most versatile and dependable back on the Jets roster is Bilal Powell. He’s no superstar runner but he’s capable, and he can definitely play on all three downs. Let someone else gamble on Chris Ivory mid game, while you scoop up Powell late. The New York offense might be a dumpster fire, but someone can score 6-8 times here.” – Scott Pianowski (Yahoo! Sports)
ECR: RB73 | ADP: RB81
“Rashard Mendenhall is locked in as the Cardinals’ lead back, but backups Ryan Williams and Andre Ellington have been slowed by injuries. That leaves Taylor, a fifth-round pick in April’s draft, in position for a massive workload if Mendenhall were to miss any action or is unable to return to his pre-injury form. Drafted only 15 spots after popular sleeper Johnathan Franklin, Taylor is an ideal late-round target.” – Mike Clay (Pro Football Focus)
“When I sat down to ponder this question, I scrawled out notes for five players without skipping a beat. Following a period of quiet reflection (read: screaming along to hair metal), I circled back to Stepfan Taylor in Arizona. He’s sitting in a decent spot given the questions surrounding Rashard Mendenhall’s durability and performance. His chief competitors for reps have also missed time in camp, and Taylor’s more than made up for the OTA absences while prepping for graduation at Stanford. The Cardinals improved the offensive line by adding veteran Eric Winston and tackle Levi Brown returns from injury. With Carson Palmer under center, the passing game will be more efficient downfield and will therefore open up the run game. Taylor demonstrated his durability and an ability to catch the ball out of the backfield (41 receptions last season) at Stanford. Does he get extra credit for the “Kulabafi” alter-ego?” – Mike Harmon (Swollen Dome)
ECR: RB38 | ADP: RB40
“Let’s go for an upside play in Hillman, who could land the main RB gig in Denver’s potent offense based on his own varied skill set – and if Montee Ball doesn’t improve his pass protection. That’s kind’ve important when Peyton Manning is the QB you’re protecting. By the way, looking at those limited options outside the top-30 reinforces my RB-heavy plan early in drafts.” – Ben Standig (FFToolbox)
ECR: RB29 | ADP: RB28
“Bernard isn’t a sleeper in the traditional sense, but I believe he can still be had at value. BenJarvus Green-Ellis has lost a step or three while Bernard looks quick, decisive and more powerful than I expected and he was my number one rookie. He has all the attributes of an every down back and with the Bengals looking to pass more should help him see more work initially in the passing game, which will lead to him beating out BJGE as the season goes on.” – Chet Gresham (The Fake Football)
“Veteran RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis is listed atop the depth chart for the Bengals, but that is not likely to last very long. Bernard is not only an explosive runner, but he is skilled as both a receiver and pass blocker. The Bengals are going to be able to use him on any down and when he shows his explosiveness, he will overtake the “Law Firm” as the number one back and have a chance to put up big rushing and receiving numbers for a potentially explosive Bengals offense.” – Derek Lofland (Fantasy Football Maniax)
ECR: RB30 | ADP: RB31
“Vereen offers maximum versatility for a team well known for its up-tempo offense, weekly game-planning and creativity. Vereen will line up all over the field creating matchup problems with his speed, receiving skills and big play ability. He’s capable of 50+ catches, 1000 total yards and 8 TDs.” – Bob Henry (FootballGuys)
ECR: RB33 | ADP: RB35
“When Jonathan Stewart was sidelined for the last month of the 2012 season, Williams was the fifth scoring running back in PPR leagues. With Stewart a likely candidate for the PUP, Williams is a steal at his current ADP.” – Jeff Ratcliffe (Pro Football Focus)
ECR: RB69 | ADP: RB49
“The 49ers are short on weapons this year and I think he will be used in a Darren Sproles type role. He could get a few carries a game to keep Gore fresh and they will look to get the ball in his hands in the passing game. He has bulked up and looks ready for the workload coming his way.” – Nelson Sousa (scoutPRO)
ECR: RB55 | ADP: RB63
“He won’t supplant Reggie Bush, but he has been ahead of Mikel Leshoure on the Lions’ depth chart all offseason. He’ll spell Bush and flirt with flex-worthiness, especially in PPR leagues. If Bush misses time, Bell has top-20 upside. I have him at RB40, 23 spots ahead of his current ADP.” – Austin Lee (Pro Football Focus)
ECR: RB47 | ADP: RB47
“There is no clear leader in the Rams RB corps despite the recent declaration that Daryl Richardson will start in Week 1. And, to me, this is a moot point with Pead suspended for a single game, and it has artificially deflated his value as the fantasy community reacts to the news. Even if Richardson is the “starter” in name, Pead will still see touches each week, and to my mind he can win the “starting” role himself. His value will only get lower if he actually bombs, so if he does break out, you’re getting a bargain here.” – Ross Miles (Pro Football Focus)
ECR: RB42 | ADP: RB50
“You can win your fantasy leagues with running backs who you draft super late (or not at all). Just look at what Freddy Morris did last year. Thomas will be on a lot of championship rosters this year. Thomas will lead the team in rushing. He’s averaged 4.8 yards per rush since 2011. But he’s a good receiver out of the backfield, even with Darren Sproles in the mix. Thomas ranked 12th among running backs last year with 354 receiving yards.” – Adam Rank (NFL.com)
ECR: RB34 | ADP: RB34
“It seems like David WIlson is getting most of the love from fantasy teams at running back for the Giants but I wouldn’t be surprised if Brown outproduces him. Brown is going to get the goal-line work and his fair share of carries even if Wilson starts. Brown has high touchdown potential and his yards should be more than adequate.” – Jeff Paur (RTSports)
ECR: RB59 | ADP: RB62
“Sure, Moreno could end up as a zero, but the Broncos’ second preseason game reinforced ball security issues for Ronnie Hillman and suggested pass protection problems for Montee Ball. Moreno wasn’t bad at all over the final six games of 2012, and it isn’t a stretch to call John Fox “risk averse”. I’d still draft Moreno behind both Ball and Hillman, but that doesn’t mean we should dismiss his sleeper upside as an endgame pick.” – John Halpin (Fox Sports)
ECR: RB36 | ADP: RB36
“In the era of running back by committee (RBBC), the New Orleans Saints truly employ that concept; almost to a fault. Mark Ingram is currently listed as the Saints starting running back, but the question many fantasy owners have is how many touches will he get and if that will be enough to start on their fantasy team. Currently, I have Ingram projected at 850 yards on the ground with eight touchdowns, which isn’t too bad since many “Experts” have Ingram listed as the 36th best running back on the board. He will probably start the year as a backup on your team, but there are several matchups he, and the Saints offense can exploit on the ground. He’ll finish top 25 at the end of the year.” – Paul Greco (FP911)
ECR: RB44 | ADP: RB45
“Especially in a PPR format we love Mr. Woodhead. The move from New England to San Diego is a good one for Danny as New England had too many mouths to feed. In San Diego he should find more targets and less talents, both of which should help him catch 60 balls and be a solid RB3/Flex option for your team.” – Ken Zalis (Fans Fantasy Football)
“Local beat writers in San Diego have been consistent on one thing all summer; newly acquired RB Danny Woodhead will be playing the majority of third down snaps this season. When the Chargers first drafted Ryan Mathews in the first round, they thought he was a three-down feature back. Well, we all did. Mathews never developed his pass-blocking, and remains an unreliable two-down rusher. Woodhead is a much more accomplished blocker, and is expected to handle most third downs and two-minute drill situations. Considering Ronnie Brown caught 49 passes last year, we wouldn’t rule out 50-plus catches for Woodhead so he’s a solid flex option in standard leagues, but his value jumps considerably in PPR formats. We also like the fact that Woodhead is a third down, pass catching back on a team that figures to be trailing often this season. He could have weekly flex value in PPR and has some upside in standard scoring. – FantasyoMatic (FantasyOMatic)
ECR: RB21 | ADP: RB21
“Miller will earn a three-down role this season in Miami. Not only does he have a Miami (FL) pedigree, but Miller also has the easiest schedule among running backs based on 2012 fantasy points allowed to the position. He’ll turn into a nice No. 2 running back in 2013.” – Michael Fabiano (NFL.com)
ECR: RB24 | ADP: RB26
“Lacy was the top running back on many draft boards after posting 1,322 yards and 17 touchdowns in his junior year at Alabama. It appears Lacy has won the starting job in Green Bay and I could easily see him duplicating the type of numbers Stevan Ridley put up after winning the starting job in New England last year. Ridley rushed for over 1,200 yards and had 12 rushing touchdowns which ranked him 11th among all running backs last year. Based on Lacy’s current ADP, that would make him a huge steal this year.” – Brendan Donahue (EDSFootball)
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We’d like to thank all of the experts who shared their sleeper picks. If you like what the pundits have to say, please follow them on Twitter and check out their respective web sites. Also, after reading about these top sleepers, be sure to test your draft strategy by practicing with our free mock draft simulator.
