Note: RotoExperts has been gracious enough to share a weekly article with our users for free. For additional RotoExperts insight, you can visit RotoExperts.com.
Week One of the preseason is in the rearview and we are now in the thick of Fantasy draft season. While many drafts happen in the two weeks prior to the start of the regular season, it is important to start monitoring draft trends now as part of your preparation. An impressive preseason performance can often times inflate a players ADP. Chris Johnson rattled off a 58-yard TD run and optimism seems restored behind a new look Titans offensive line. Daryl Richardson looks to be in the driver’s seat for the Rams starting RB job. Kenbrell Thompkins continues to march up draft boards for the New England Patriots. Chris Givens reminded everyone that he can still make plays while Fantasy owners were too busy drafting Tavon Austin and hoping Brian Quick could break out. Of course, it would not be a week of training camp without more injuries. Tom Brady tweaked his knee and left practice on Wednesday, but it looks like he is day-to-day. Thankfully, it appears as if Jamaal Charles owners escaped with just a scare after he was carted off the practice field on Monday. Same goes for Malcom Floyd, who will still miss at least the rest of the preseason, but did not tear his ACL. There is even more opportunity now for Vincent Brown and rookie Keenan Allen in San Diego. This week on the ADP Observation Deck, we will use data from Fantasy Football Toolbox’s Standard ADPs from after Week One of preseason action.
AT VALUE
These are players whose ADP is in line with their Fantasy value for the 2013 season. They can be selected where their current ADP suggests they are going.
Trent Richardson, Browns RB – Standard ADP: 8.24, 6th RB
Last season, Trent Richardson battled through numerous injuries to put up a respectable 950 yards rushing, along with 12 total TDs, 51 catches and another 367 yards receiving. As a banged-up rookie on an offensively challenged team, that was impressive even if his 3.6 yards per carry was not. He has one of the highest ceilings of any RB in football and it would not be a surprise if he finishes the year as the top scorer at the position. He is only coming off the board as the sixth RB because of the perceived risk factors associated with him. All of the other first round options have impressive resumés to back up their lofty draft positions. That even goes for fellow rookie Doug Martin, who finished last season as a Top 5 RB with almost 2,000 combined yards. Still, Richardson has even more upside than Martin and he can be picked towards the end of the first round. He played through the injuries last year and is presumed to be over the shin issue that bothered him this offseason. He is no more risky than any other RB out there and should be a workhorse in Norv Turner’s offense. Draft him with confidence and enjoy the breakout.
Pierre Garcon, Redskins WR – Standard ADP: 55.29, 20th WR
Garcon showed a strong rapport with Robert Griffin III right from the get-go last season, catching four passes for 109 yards and a TD in Week 1. Unfortunately, a toe injury slowed him down considerably and he finished the year with 44 catches, 633 yards and four TDs in just 10 games. Right now, he is being drafted as a mid-range WR2 and that is solid value if you can grab him in the 5th round. He has the upside to produce Top 12 numbers if both he and RGIII can stay healthy. Anything other than career numbers across the board should be considered a disappointing season for Garcon.
Sam Bradford, Rams QB – Standard ADP: 141.59, 18th QB
It is too early to write Bradford off as a potential QB1 option, but he is at a crossroads. This year, you can draft him late as your back-up and hope that the offense starts to click. After one of the most impressive rookie seasons of any QB since Peyton Manning, Bradford has struggled to take the next step to Fantasy stardom. Last season was his best as a pro, with 3,700 passing yards and a 21:13 TD:INT ratio. It was a solid effort, but those stats are not going to make you reach for him in a draft. Good thing is, you do not need to. He is one of the better QB2s on the board after the 10th round. Bradford is still only 25 years old and now has even more offensive weapons to work with, including dynamic rookie Tavon Austin and the enigmatic but athletically gifted TE Jared Cook. If his receiving corps. plays to their capability and the run game can keep defenses honest, Bradford is going to be in for a big statistical season.
DRAFT VALUE
These are players whose ADP is lower than it should be. As drafts are happening every day, ADPs are changing and these players should see their stock rise as we get closer to the season. They possess more upside and potential than their ADP and will return solid value this season.
Miles Austin, Cowboys WR – Standard ADP: 85.97, 33rd WR
Way back during the 2009 campaign, Miles Austin broke out with 81-catches for 1,320 yards and 11 touchdowns. While his numbers dipped the following season, he still managed over 1,000 yards and 7 TDs. Over the past two seasons, he has battled hamstring injuries and just has not looked like the explosive receiver he was in ‘09. Dez Bryant has emerged as the clear WR1 option in Dallas, with Jason Witten also hogging targets on every possession. That leaves Austin as the third option in a pass-heavy offense, which is not a bad place to be. He played in all 16 games last year, despite being limited at times, and he finished just 57 yards shy of 1,000 for the season. There is room for a fully healthy Austin to improve on that line, and as your Fantasy WR3 (or better yet WR4), you can do a lot worse. He is a steal at his current ADP of the 7th round in a 12-team league.
Ronnie Hillman, Broncos RB – Standard ADP: 108.65, 38th RB
It is expected, and in some cases assumed, that Montee Ball will be the bell cow RB in Denver; and I am not saying he won’t be. Why even bother drafting Hillman then? He has an intriguing skill set and even as a change-of-pace back he can be useful in Fantasy leagues. He was the youngest player in the league last year and has bulked up this offseason to prepare for a larger role in the offense. If Ball takes over as the featured back, Hillman should still receive a handful of carries and looks in the passing game on a weekly basis. There is also a chance the carries are split more evenly and that could end up making him Flex-worthy. Knowshon Moreno figures to factor in as well, but the Broncos clearly want Ball and Hillman to take the reins. The investment level of Hillman as your high-upside RB4 is too good to pass over.
Kenbrell Thompkins, Patriots WR – Standard ADP: 148.84, 55th WR
Talk about a meteoric rise. Thompkins is a 25-year-old undrafted free agent out of Cincinnati with a troubled past. The Patriots took a shot on his talent and it appears to be paying off in a big way. After being the talk of mini-camp, Thompkins has carried over his strong play to training camp and Week 1 of the preseason. He is currently “penciled” in as the starting WR opposite Danny Amendola. While a lot can change between now and the regular season, if he keeps up his strong performance they are not going to be able to keep him off the field. In the Patriots high-powered offense, he could be a key contributor. His current ADP makes him a very intriguing late round gamble.
PASS
These are players whose ADP is higher than it should be and drafting them there would be a risk.
Russell Wilson, Seahawks QB – Standard ADP: 73.69, 11th QB
Wilson is part of an exciting young crop of QBs that have taken the league by storm. Last year as a rookie he threw for over 3,100 yards with 26 TDs and only 10 INTs. Plus, he added another four TDs and almost 500 yards on the ground. Not a bad debut, but what is he going to do for an encore? The Seahawks traded for Percy Harvin prior to the NFL Draft, but hip surgery has knocked him out until at least November. They still have a dominant defense and one of the best run games in the league, both of which they will rely on heavily. That means Wilson will likely be putting the ball in the air no more than 25-30 times a game. Big yardage performances are going to be hard to come by and that means his value will be closely tied to his TD production. His ability to make plays with his feet gives him a boost, but he is more high-upside QB2 than every week starter right now. Tony Romo, Eli Manning and even Andy Dalton are going more than a full round after him and offer just as much (if not more) potential this season. Value-wise, it will pay off to wait a few more rounds for your starting QB rather than grabbing Wilson early in the 6th round.
Greg Olsen, Panthers TE – Standard ADP: 90.40, 7th TE
Olsen turned in the best year of his career with the Panthers last season, grabbing 69 passes for over 800 yards and five TDs. He was Cam Newton’s second look on offense after Steve Smith and unless Brandon Lafell can take the next step, it will be more of the same in 2013. At this point, though, what he did last season is his ceiling with perhaps a few more TDs. With the TE landscape right now, you can afford to wait on the position if you do not grab Jimmy Graham. Why draft Olsen in the 7th round when you can get similar production in the 10th round from a Brandon Myers or Martellus Bennett? Olsen is definitely a safe option for this season, but you can maximize value by passing on him at his current ADP.
Benjarvus Green-Ellis, Bengals RB – Standard ADP: 92.43, 33rd RB
Two weeks ago in this column, we mentioned that rookie Giovani Bernard was a strong buy given his current ADP. Rumors of a 50-50 timeshare in Cincinnati make the rookie an even more appealing option. BJGE is going to get his work as a reliable, yet uninspiring ball carrier, but he offers little upside. Even last season, where he had no competition for carries, he managed a pedestrian 1,094 yards rushing and 6 TDs. Insert Bernard, the talented, high upside rookie and that could be even more trouble for his 2013 production. If you can get him as your RB4 maybe take a shot, but just remember his ceiling is not much higher than last year. At the current going rate in RB3 territory, it is best to avoid at all costs.