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Pro Football Focus: PPR Draft Targets

PFF Bryan Fontaine shares the players he would target in his ideal PPR draft and offers some insight into his decision making process.

 

Note: This article is part of our preseason series that highlights quality content from premium subscription sites. Pro Football Focus has been gracious enough to share a weekly article with our users for free. For additional PFF insight, you can visit ProFootballFocus.com.

 

There are advantages to waiting until the final draft weekend before the regular season. First, you already know who suffered a major injury like Ryan Mathews or Trent Richardson. Check. Secondly, you know who won their training camp battle for a starting job like Jake Locker or Russell Wilson. Check.

 

Unfortunately, your league mates have this information too. Finding insider information at this point of the preseason is harder to come by than it was at the beginning of the month. That is why it is important to have clarity about your personal rankings entering your draft. You want to make the best possible decision with every draft pick. There are no more sleepers. There are no more injuries (hopefully). It is time to put all of your chips on the table and go all in.

 

To help you with your last-minute decisions, I have listed the 20 players I would target in my ideal draft:

 

(Rank: Bryan Fontaine’s player ranking | ECR: Expert Consensus Ranking at Fantasy Pros | ADP: Average Draft Position)

 

Quarterback

 

Andrew Luck – Colts | Rank: 12 | ECR: 17 | ADP: 16

Jake Locker – Titans | Rank: 9 | ECR: 21 | ADP: 22

Christian Ponder – Vikings | Rank: 20 | ECR: 27 | ADP: 30

 

Andrew LuckYou probably noticed the lack of an elite signal caller here. The value is not there to take a quarterback in the first few rounds this year. Matt Ryan would have been my target in the late fifth to sixth round, but his excellent preseason has pushed the hype train out of control.

 

If you wait on quarterback, you can still go back-to-back in consecutive rounds to land Andrew Luck and then Jake Locker. Luck has looked nothing like a rookie in the preseason and the ambiguity surrounding Locker is gone now that he is the starter in Tennessee. Both players have a stable of underrated offensive weapons, and most importantly, they are both going to add fantasy points with their scrambling ability. Do not forget that Locker led all quarterbacks in fantasy points per snap in 2011.

 

Christian Ponder is worth a pick along the same lines in deeper leagues where you can carry three quarterbacks. Ponder scrambled 21 times out of his 342 drop backs (6%) last year in limited duty–nearly twice the league average. He will be relied on more with Adrian Peterson returning to form. It does not hurt that he has Percy Harvin and Kyle Rudolph as his primary weapons (more on them later).

 

Running Back

 

Darren McFadden – Raiders | Rank: 5 | ECR: 5 | ADP: 5

Doug Martin – Buccaneers | Rank: 9 | ECR: 18 | ADP: 17

David Wilson – Giants | Rank: 26 | ECR: 41 | ADP: 37

Rashad Jennings – Jaguars | Rank: 31 | ECR: 45 | ADP: 43

Jacquizz Rodgers – Falcons | Rank: 25 | ECR: 36 | ADP: 44

Kendall Hunter – 49ers | Rank: 37 | ECR: 55 | ADP: 55

Bilal Powell – Jets | Rank: 39 | ECR: 64 | ADP: 75

 

If you are lucky enough to land a top-three pick, then it is a no brainer that you are taking Arian Foster, Ray Rice or LeSean McCoy. After that, it gets dicey. Do you pull the trigger on a quarterback, take Calvin Johnson or sort through the injury riddled mess of the remaining running backs?

 

If you decide on a running back in the first (a smart decision), then you are likely deciding between Darren McFadden and Chris Johnson. I give the slight edge to McFadden. His injury troubles are well documented, and although this is a tough sentence to write, he has less risk than Chris Johnson does. Plus, with the Titans changing to a pass-heavy offense – it is more likely that McFadden remains the focal point of the Oakland offense.

 

Although the popular strategy this year is to go heavy on running backs early, there just are not enough quality running backs to take another in the second. I would rather pull the trigger on Julio Jones in the second, and take Doug Martin a round early in the third. Martin has been the talk of training camp, and now is listed as the starter over LeGarrette Blount. Do not let Martin’s 3.6 YPC in the preseason fool you. He ran tough and has the ability to play on all three downs.

 

I am forgoing the running back position to load up on wide receivers in the middle rounds.

 

When I come back to the position, my targets include high-upside handcuffs in strong running games like David Wilson, Kendall Hunter and Bilal Powell.

 

Even if Maurice Jones-Drew ends his holdout soon, Rashad Jennings still has tons of upside in a shared committee this year. And if Jones-Drew holds out even longer, Jennings is a borderline RB2 each week.

 

I have a draft pick reserved in every draft for Jacquizz Rodgers. With Dirk Koetter as the new offensive coordinator, the Falcons are going to increase their screen plays to the running back position. Rodgers is a good bet to be a poor man’s version of Darren Sproles in 2012.

 

Wide Receiver

 

Julio Jones – Falcons | Rank: 2 | ECR: 7 | ADP: 3

Percy Harvin – Vikings | Rank: 6 | ECR: 11 | ADP: 13

Jeremy Maclin – Eagles | Rank: 15 | ECR: 19 | ADP: 19

Torrey Smith – Ravens | Rank: 16 | ECR: 29 | ADP: 27

Kendall Wright – Titans | Rank: 46 | ECR: 51 | ADP: 49

Austin Collie – Colts | Rank: 30 | ECR: 48 | ADP: 55

Leonard Hankerson – Redskins | Rank: 43 | ECR: 62 | ADP: 73

 

Some might say the Julio Jones hype train is out of control. I say you need to be on board or you could miss an epic fantasy season from the second-year wide receiver. If you extrapolate Jones’ last five games of 2011 for a full season, he would have had 77 catches, 1,475 yards and 19 touchdowns. That is Calvin Johnson territory. To top it off, Jones has carried over his late season dominance to the preseason with 13 receptions for 240 yards and a touchdown in limited duty.

 

Percy Harvin is my top target as I look to add more wide receivers starting in the fourth round. Harvin was one of the most efficient fantasy options on a per snap basis last year. He only played 587 snaps, but had 52 rushing attempts and was targeted on 30% of his pass routes. Without a true No. 1 wide receiver, Harvin is line more heavy usage when he is on the field.

 

Jeremy Maclin is underrated because of his struggles last season. He missed three games, though he still posted excellent statistics on a per-game basis. His extrapolated totals would have come out to 78 receptions for 1,057 yards and 6 touchdowns.

 

Torrey Smith is ready to take another step forward this year. He emerged as one of the best deep threats in the NFL last year with 40% of his targets over 20 yards downfield. Also five of his seven touchdowns came outside the red zone. Most importantly, training camp reports indicated that Smith’s route running has improved as he gets in and out of his breaks.

 

After I have my starters and a flex candidate at wide receiver, I am taking fliers after the tenth round or later. Kendall Wright has shown a good rapport with Locker in the preseason. He could be in for a big season if he plays in the slot often with the Titans installing more run and shoot concepts like the Giants have run recently. The slot role worked out well for Victor Cruz last year. Austin Collie’s concussion is worrisome, but he will be good to go in Week 1. He will see time outside in the Colts’ base formations and already has good chemistry with Luck.

 

Leonard Hankerson was highlighted in my Lloyd Factor article earlier in the summer as a potential breakout candidate. If he can win a starting job for Washington, he will benefit from Robert Griffin III throwing him plenty of targets.

 

Tight End

 

Kyle Rudolph – Vikings | Rank: 7 | ECR: 18 | ADP: 18

Greg Olsen – Panthers | Rank: 10 | ECR: 17 | ADP: 17

Kellen Davis – Bears | Rank: 18 | ECR: 28 | ADP: 34

 

Kyle Rudolph is one of the few tight ends outside the top-10 has a good chance of being a top-10 option this year. His rookie season was slowed because of a lingering hamstring injury, but he finished strong with three touchdowns in his final six games. He is a matchup nightmare for defenses with the ability to make highlight reel catches look routine. The Minnesota beat reports were buzzing about Rudolph early in training camp as Ponder’s favorite target.

 

Although Rudolph is a good bet this season, I still feel comfortable hedging my bets with a committee approach. Greg Olsen makes a perfect complement to Rudolph. He could also emerge as the second receiving option in Carolina behind Steve Smith and has the athletic ability to create separation downfield.  With Jeremy Shockey gone, Olsen is due to see a few more targets per game from quarterback Cam Newton. The huge upside is not there for Olsen, but he will be a consistent performer week to week.

 

Kellen Davis is going undrafted in most formats, but is my favorite player to add at the end of every draft. Davis will benefit from Mike Martz leaving town this offseason. Martz rarely featured the tight end position the last few seasons, which stymied an athletic talent like Davis. His 18 receptions and 5 touchdowns last year were career highs after combining for 10 receptions and 4 touchdowns the previous two years. Davis again figures to have a prominent role in the red zone after returning to Chicago with a new two-year deal.

 

To view more great content like this, please visit our friends at Pro Football Focus & follow them on Twitter: @PFF

 

Photo Sources: #1, #2, #3

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