Earlier this offseason, I took at look at stolen-base tendencies by team from last year. This article will attempt to unearth some specific players who can help rosters with stolen bases. Perhaps I’m too hung up on semantics, but instead of referring to this as a sleeper piece, I’ve opted to add bargains to the title as well. Only one of the players listed below has an ADP inside the top 200. Four of the players listed in this piece have an ADP north of 380. I’ve also opted to include a player from each league with an ADP north of 500 for gamers in AL- and NL-only leaguers to consider.
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Yoan Moncada (2B – CWS) – 164.7
I showed Moncada some love in a post-hype sleeper piece at the end of last month, and here he is again. The 23-year-old infielder stole a dozen bases in 18 attempts last year, but there are legitimate reasons to think he could make a huge leap this year. For starters, he stole 17 bases in 25 attempts in 80 games played at the Triple-A level in 2017, and he has a couple of massive stolen base seasons on his resume in the low minors. In 2015, he stole 49 bases in 52 attempts in Single-A. In 2016, he stole 36 bases in 44 attempts in 61 games at the High-A level before swiping nine bases in 13 attempts in 45 games at the Double-A level.
His stolen-base prowess hasn’t followed him to the majors, but his speed hasn’t dried up. According to Baseball Savant’s Statcast Sprint Speed (ft/sec), Moncada’s 28.8 ft/sec ranked tied with Jose Peraza for 70th out of 549 qualified players. He also benefits from playing for a team that should award him chances. The White Sox ranked seventh last year in stolen base attempts with 139. Add it all up, and 20-plus stolen bases are within reach.
Garrett Hampson (2B/SS – COL) – 212.5
Hampson is battling Ryan McMahon for the starting second base gig in Colorado. Both players are raking this spring. McMahon has clobbered minor-league pitching, but he’s been unable to carry over that success to the majors in 226 plate appearances (.293 wOBA and 66 wRC+, per FanGraphs). In other words, even if McMahon wins the job to open the year, it wouldn’t be shocking to see him cough it up to Hampson. The gaming community isn’t exactly sleeping on 24-year-old Hampson, but his ADP remains a value.
He parlayed 48 plate appearances for the Rockies into a .275/.396/.400 slash, demonstrating top-shelf patience with a 14.6% BB%. He stole two bases in two attempts for the parent club after stealing 17 in 21 chances in 72 games at the Triple-A level and 19 in 20 chances over 38 games at the Double-A level last year. If you weren’t doing the math, that’s 38 stolen bases in 43 attempts between Double-A, Triple-A, and MLB combined. Hampson stole 51 bases in 65 attempts in 127 games at the High-A level in 2017, and his speed has shown up on the sprint speed leaderboard. Hampson’s 30.0 ft/sec ranked tied for seventh with a forthcoming player out of 549 players. Colorado ranked ninth in stolen base attempts in 2018 with 128. The rookie second baseman has 30-plus stolen base upside if he gets regular playing time, and ZiPS agrees with a 32-stolen base projection in 126 games and 552 plate appearances.
Austin Meadows (OF – TB) – 213.7
Meadows is positioned to earn a starting gig in the outfield for the Rays. In 59 games and 191 plate appearances split between the Pirates (49 games and 165 plate appearances) and Rays (10 games and 26 plate appearances) last season, he stole five bases and was caught only one time. He added 12 stolen bases in 14 attempts at the Triple-A level last year. The 23-year-old outfielder doesn’t have any huge stolen base totals on his resume, but last year’s super efficient 17 in 20 attempts between Triple-A and MLB is solid.
Furthermore, he did steal 20 bases in 121 games and 556 plate appearances at the High-A level in 2015. Meadows ranked tied for 73rd in sprint speed (28.7 ft/sec) with a few notable players such as Tim Anderson (26 stolen bases last year), Christian Yelich (22 stolen bases), Ozzie Albies (14 stolen bases), and Andrew McCutchen (14 stolen bases). Additionally, the Rays led the way with 179 stolen base attempts last year. Meadows is a good bet for the mid-to upper-teens in stolen bases, but 20-plus isn’t out of the question.
Ramon Laureano (OF – OAK) – 243.0
It seems fitting that there’s an elephant in the room to address when discussing someone who plays for the A’s. The elephant in the room is Oakland’s rank of dead last in stolen base attempts in 2018 with 56. The next lowest stolen base attempt total was 74 by the Twins. Oakland’s high-water mark for stolen base attempts in each of the last three years is only 79 in 2017. They did attempt more than 100 steals in back-to-back years in 2014 and 2015, though.
Even with Oakland’s unwillingness to run willy nilly on the bases, Laureano stole seven bases in eight attempts in 48 games and 176 plate appearances for the A’s last season. He stole 11 in 13 attempts in 64 games and 284 plate appearances at the Triple-A level last year as well. Laureano’s efficiency is of the utmost importance for him maximizing stolen base chances with his parent club.
Glancing over his minor-league work, efficiency has never been a problem. The 24-year-old outfielder is fleet of foot, and he tied for 47th in sprint speed at 29.0 ft/sec. I’m optimistic about his chances of stealing 15-20 bases with a pinch more upside, but I suspect his team’s aversion to running wild on the bases keeps his ceiling short of 30.
Delino DeShields (OF – TEX) – 383.5
Here’s where my issue with semantics comes into play. Calling DeShields a stolen-base sleeper doesn’t feel right after he stole 20 bases last year and has stolen 82 bases in 421 games and 1,528 plate appearances in his Rangers career. However, it is fair to call him a bargain.
At this time last year, the hype train was getting up to full speed. It went off the tracks with DeShields hitting a paltry .216/.310/.281 in 393 plate appearances. Despite his putrid hitting line, he still managed to steal 20 bases.
He’s only a year removed from hitting .269/.347/.367 with 29 stolen bases in 120 games and 440 plate appearances. At this cost, he’s an easy cut if DeShields opens the year looking more like the 2018 version of himself than the 2017 version. If, however, he bounces back, you’ve got a stolen base asset who’s not a total drag in average at a minimal cost. DeShields is one of the fastest players in the game, and he’s the speedster I teased in Hampson’s write-up as the man tied for seventh in sprint speed.
Leonys Martin (OF – CLE) – 384.5
Martin opened last year with a solid start to his campaign with the Tigers. The Indians traded for him to patch up their outfield, but he played in only six games before having his season end due to a bacterial infection. He’s healthy now, and he’ll look to build on last year’s work. He reached base at a respectable .323 clip and tallied a career-best 8.5% BB%. His walk gains were supported by a full-season best 29.6% O-Swing% (30.9% O-Swing% league average, per FanGraphs).
Cleveland has done little to address their shaky outfield, so Martin is positioned to start in centerfield. He’s not as speedy as the others in this piece, but his 27.6 ft/sec sprint speed is a tiny bit above average. He stole 24 bases in a season as recently as 2016, and he twice eclipsed 30 stolen bases with 31 in 2014 and 36 in 2013.
His stolen base potential should get a lift from playing for manager Terry Francona and the Indians. Cleveland ranked second in stolen base attempts (171) last year, and they ranked fifth with 165 attempts in 2016. Even in the down year in 2017 sandwiched between the two top-five finishes, the Indians ranked 17th with 111 stolen base attempts. Martin should reach the teens in stolen bases with a chance at besting 20.
Cameron Maybin (OF – SF) – 580.0
Working from left field to right field, San Francisco’s official MLB page’s depth chart lists Chris Shaw, Steven Duggar, and Austin Slater as the starters in the outfield. Drew Ferguson and Mac Williamson are the only other outfielders listed on their depth chart. To call San Francisco’s current group of outfielders underwhelming would be kind.
The club signed veterans Gerardo Parra and Maybin to minor-league deals. Maybin isn’t making a strong case to claim a spot on San Francisco’s Opening Day roster thus far in spring training, but if he heats up, the opportunity could be there. He stole 10 bases last year in 129 games and 384 plate appearances, but his 33 stolen bases in 114 games and 450 plate appearances in 2017 are really eye-catching. File Maybin’s name away a potential dart throw in NL-only leagues, but he shouldn’t be drafted at this time.
Chris Owings (2B/3B/OF – KC) – 706.0
Owings isn’t on the ADP page, but his player page shows an ADP of 706.0. In 309 plate appearances for the Diamondbacks last year, he stunk up the joint to the tune of a .206/.272/.302 line. The year before, though, he hit a more palatable (albeit still not good) .268/.299/.442 in 386 plate appearances. He’s stolen 23 bases in 29 attempts in 203 games and 643 plate appearances over the last two years combined. Owings signed a one-year deal with the Royals, and the utility man is reportedly going to play almost every day.
Owings probably shouldn’t be awarded that kind of playing time, but it certainly helps his AL-only league and extremely large mixed-league appeal. Owings bested 20 stolen bases with 21 in 2016, and he’s still the owner of an above-average speed ranking. tied for 120th in sprint speed at 28.3 ft/sec. The rebuilding Royals are likely to offer Owings the green light to run. Kansas City ranked fifth in stolen base attempts last year with 155. Furthermore, since I’ve totaled the stolen bases and caught stealing totals provided at Baseball-Reference for a stolen base attempt total going back to 2014, the Royals have ranked no lower than tied for 11th (2017).
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
