The PGA Tour is done with Hawaii but will stay out West with the Desert Classic in Southern California. This tournament has previously been known as the CareerBuilder Challenge and the Humana Challenge. This is a pro-am event, which means the play will probably be a little slower and adds a slightly different dynamic to a normal PGA event. Each pro will be paired with an amateur. Because of this, the event is played on three different courses (PGA West TPC Stadium, PGA West Nicklaus, and the LaQuinta Country Club). Each of the 156 PGA golfers will be guaranteed three rounds of golf (instead of two) before the cut. They will play each course once and then those making the cut will play on the Stadium course on Sunday.
The last two winners have been big-hitters but Jason Dufner, Patrick Reed, and Brian Gay have also won this event and they are not long off the tee. With the event being played on three different courses, there is greater variance on the type of player that can perform well here. Since each player gets three rounds, the difference in scoring between the top finishers and those that miss the cut will be smaller than normal. Looking at overall fantasy scoring, and even how players play in no-cut events may be helpful. Considering that this event is a pro-am, the courses should be set up nicely to encourage scoring.
All of the plays that I mention in this article are plays that I will be considering for my lineups. That doesn’t mean that I will end up with all of the guys that I mention. Additional news, research, and roster construction may lead me to different plays. Realize that golf is the DFS sport that probably has the most variance from week to week. Anyone can miss a cut and anyone can finish in the Top-5 (or even win). Remember to check the news and social media reports on the morning of the event. Though golf is more difficult to get injury news, you might be able to pick up a nugget or two that helps with roster construction – especially when dealing with possible withdrawals. Have a solid process, using all the information available to you to make the best decision possible for your lineup. Good luck and have fun!
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TOURNAMENT NOTES
The previous five winners are: Jon Rahm (2018), Hudson Swafford (2017), Jason Dufner (2016), Bill Haas (2015), and Patrick Reed (2014)
Each of the past six winners had played in this event prior to winning. Notable players that are event rookies this year include Justin Rose, Patrick Cantlay, Sungjae Im, and Joaquin Niemann.
Nine of the last 10 winners of this event played in Hawaii (Sony Open or TOC) to open up the calendar year.
The average winning score has been -22 and the average cutline is -6.
Previous winners in the event that are competing again this year include Jon Rahm, Phil Mickelson, Hudson Swafford, Pat Perez, Brian Gay, Charley Hoffman, Jason Dufner, Jhonny Vegas, DJ Trahan, Bill Haas, Mark Wilson, and Mike Weir.
There are only three players playing this week that are ranked in the top-20 of the Official World Golf Rankings (Justin Rose, Jon Rahm, and Patrick Cantlay).
RECENT FORM
Charles Howell III ($11,100)
Four top-15 finishes in his last six events. Chucky Three-Sticks won back in November at the RSM Classic and last week finished T8 at the Sony Open.
J.J. Spaun ($10,000)
He has made 11 straight cuts but has not played since the middle of November. During that stretch, he has four top-15 finishes. He finished T3 twice during the stretch, as well, including the Mayakoba Classic in November.
Lucas Glover ($9,800)
After a tumultuous summer, he got hot toward the end of the summer and during the fall swing. He has five straight top-20 finishes, including a second-place finish in November at the Shriners Open.
Harold Varner III ($9,800)
Made 11 cuts in his last 12 events. In seven of those events, he has finished in the top 20, including three top-three finishes. Keep in mind, though, that he hasn’t played since the Australian PGA Championship in early December.
Patton Kizzire ($9,400)
He is riding a streak of 11 straight cuts. He has top-15 finishes in each of his last three events, which include the Sony and the Sentry Tournament of Champions. His recent form is actually recent and not just from back in the Fall swing season.
TOURNAMENT HISTORY
Adam Hadwin ($10,700)
He’s the definition of a “course horse” as he has finished 3 > 2 > 6 in the last three years. He was not necessarily in good form last year before his T3 as he had zero top-10 finishes in the 10 events leading up to the Career Builder. He has never shot worse than even par in any of his previous 16 rounds at this tournament. Also, it’s worth remembering that he shot a 59 in 2017.
Brendan Steele ($10,300)
He has made four straight cuts at this event, including a 20th place finish last year. He also finished sixth in 2017 and second in 2015.
Bud Cauley ($9,900)
Cauley has three straight top-15 finishes with his best being in 2017 when he finished third.
COURSE FIT
This is a fairly easy tournament with the average score being 22-below par. You need players that can go low on a scorecard. When looking at the Birdie or Better percentage rankings, there are only four players that are ranked in the top-10 for both the last 12 rounds and the last 50 rounds. Justin Rose ($12,100), Ryan Palmer ($10,200), Aaron Wise ($10,100), and Harold Varner III ($9,800) are players that have a high likelihood of going low in any round.
Because each of the three courses are shorter than normal and the event is conducive to amateur play (with it being a pro-am), an emphasis on ball-striking is important. Distance is always important, but it is not necessary at this event. Looking at the top-10 rankings for ball-striking, there are five players that have maintained consistency both in the recent (last 12 rounds) and the longer term (last 50 rounds). Justin Rose ($12,100), Patrick Cantlay ($11,300), Joaquin Nieman ($10,400), Richy Werenski ($9,600), and Corey Conners ($8,700) seem to be good fits for these three courses.
Even though this event is played on three different courses, two of the days will be spent playing on the “Stadium” course, which is a Pete Dye-designed course. If a player is able to make the cut, Sunday’s round will be played here. When looking at Pete Dye courses that measure less than 7,200 yards, there are five players that are in both the short-term (last 12 rounds) and long-term (last 50 rounds) top-10 for total shots gained on the field. Patrick Cantlay ($11,300), Charley Hoffman ($9,900), Si Woo Kim ($9,200), Jason Dufner ($8,900), and Kevin Streelman ($8,500) are all players that have good history at Pete Dye courses. They might be able to make a run on Sunday if they can make the cut.
FAVORITE STUD
Jon Rahm ($11,900)
He is really expensive, and I normally don’t believe in paying up in golf. There are just too many players that can win. Besides, paying the outrageous prices that the top-tier players have essentially means that they have to finish in the top five. A solid top-15 performance doesn’t help you. There is too much variance in golf. With all of that said, I really like Rahm this week. He is the overwhelming favorite in terms of betting odds. He has already played this year (as opposed to Rose and Cantlay). Common sense says that is important but historically, that has also meant something special at this tournament. Rahm is the defending champion and finished T8 at the Sentry TOC two weeks ago. He has no apparent weaknesses in his game, though he is often criticized for his temper and his occasional blowups. The reality is that he isn’t often affected by this long-term. Despite this reputation, he was ranked second last year on the PGA Tour in Bounce Back. Certainly, we can always make the case to fade the high-priced players. We can also make the case for Justin Rose and his recent run of six of seven top-four finishes. I am going to go Rahm over Rose primarily because Rose has never played this event and has yet to play in 2019. I like Rahm’s chances to repeat as champion this week.
FAVORITE VALUE
Hudson Swafford ($8,300)
He has made 10 straight cuts. During that stretch, he has three top-10 finishes, including last week’s T3 at the Sony Open. That alone makes his price of $1,700 below the average FD roster spot ridiculously low. When you consider that he has made the cut in four of his five times playing in this tournament, including winning the 2017 event, then that price is a steal. He is the 19th highest priced golfer on DraftKings but there are 61 golfers priced higher on FanDuel.
FAVORITE PUNT
Brandon Harkins ($7,800)
If you are going to punt one of your spots to pay up for a stud, then Harkins isn’t a bad option considering he finished in eighth place last year. Remember, that when a football team punts, they are essentially giving up on that possession but still have some hope that there will be a fumble recovery. When you punt a golfer, you really are just hoping that they make the cut. Harkins is not guaranteed to make the cut but he has two top-10 finishes in his last nine events, including at the Shriners Open back in November. He made the cut last week at the Sony Open so he has played in 2019, which is an advantage. Since last year’s eighth-place finish, Harkins has made 67% of his cuts, which isn’t bad considering his price.
PROCEED WITH CAUTION
Harold Varner III (9,800)
I hope that you avoided Jordan Spieth last week. Writing him up did wonders for my bankroll. It gave me accountability. Every time I was tempted to click on my man’s name for the Sony Open, I remembered what I wrote to the loyal readers of this column. This week has some similarities. HV3 is a player that I play almost religiously each week. He is one of my favorite players on tour and is coming into this tournament on a hot streak (seven top-20 finishes in his last 12 tournaments). However, he didn’t play in either of the Hawaii events, which I think matters. He seems to have a game that would fit this tournament with his ball-striking and scoring ability but for some reason doesn’t play well here. He has missed three straight cuts. To be fair, he has never come into this tournament with the form he has right now so the results could be different. This write up is probably more for me than it is for you. I can easily see HV3 having another top-10 finish – which, by the way, would mean a huge fantasy performance as he usually outscores his real-life tournament finish. However, with his tournament history, I am going to try and proceed with caution and not automatically click on his name this week.
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Jamy Bechler is a regular contributor to FantasyPros for NBA, NFL, and PGA. His DFS twitter is @WinningDFS101, and his website is www.FantasyFocusFootball.com. When he is not playing DFS, Jamy is an author, host of the “Success is a Choice” podcast, and is a leadership trainer, working with businesses and teams across the country (including the NBA). Even though he offers his advice on players and contests, after additional information and consideration, he may end up using different players and strategies than what he recommends.
