Should owners sell high on Trevor Story or hang on to the young SS?
In the shots heard around the fantasy community, Trevor Story made history in Arizona on Monday night. First, he was the second player in Rockies history to hit a home run in his debut on Opening Day. But he was not done there as Story hit a second home run off of Zack Greinke to become the first player in baseball history to record two home runs in his major league debut in his first Opening Day.
Get free start/sit and waiver wire advice for your fantasy team 
Story caught fantasy owner’s eyes in spring training while bashing six home runs in 53 at-bats during the competition to become the starting shortstop for Colorado with Jose Reyes awaiting word on his pending suspension. This depressed Story’s draft stock in the preseason and those who took a flier on him were rewarded immediately. One of the most impressive parts of his two home run debut was what Greinke said in an interview following the game. The right-hander told reporters that no one has homered off of the pitch Story hit his first ball out on. A drive to the opposite field.
This is important in regards to Story. Looking at his spray chart from the minor leagues, 17 of his 20 home runs were to his pull field. But his first in the majors was to right-center. In the minors last year, Story played 130 games between Double-A and Triple-A with 80 runs, 20 home runs, 80 RBI, 22 stolen bases and a .279/.350/.514 slash line. Conveniently, he had 10 home runs and 40 RBI at each level. Detractors are going to point to his 141 strikeouts in 512 at-bats in the minors last year, but it seems to a part of his game. During the spring, Story struck out 13 times against six walks on his way to a .340/.407/.792 average. It remains to be seen how he will fare with more exposure to major league pitching, but it is sage to expect an average at the .250 level or lower for 2016.
On top of this is the unknown fate regarding Reyes along with how the Rockies will handle both Reyes and Story as the season progresses. Many pundits will be saying it is time to sell high on Story, and they could be right. However, looking back at 2015, if Story can stay with Colorado all season he may be worth keeping him. Only two shortstops hit 20 or more home runs last year: Carlos Correa (22 HR) and Brandon Crawford (21 HR). Of these two, only Correa stole double-digit bases with 14 steals last year for Houston in only 99 games. Ian Desmond just missed this group with 19 home runs and 13 stolen bases.
Having Desmond as a comparison for Trevor Story in regards to value is interesting. According to the end of season ranks, Desmond finished 13th on ESPN at shortstop, 11th on Yahoo and ninth on CBS in 2015. This was despite Desmond only hitting .233/.290/.384 on the year. Marcus Semien is another player to use as a guide to determine Story’s value for 2016. Semien hit 15 home runs with 11 steals last year with a .257/.310/.405 slash line. Semien ranked 15th on ESPN, 15th on Yahoo and 13th on CBS in the final rankings at shortstop. Story has been hitting second for Colorado and plays in a much more generous home ballpark than Semien.
Not only this, but Colorado is the best place to hit for batters in regards to BABIP. Story can swing and miss but his average may be able to hover in the .240-to-.250 range by the sheer fact he plays half of his games at Coors Field. Most projection systems did not consider Story worthy, but ZiPS on Fangraphs was very high on him. It projected 494 at bats with 57 runs, 18 home runs, 63 RBI, 17 stolen bases and a .244/.308/.441 line. If he can stay near the top of the lineup, the runs are too low. This slight bump in his counting stats with the averages as a baseline could mean Story has the potential to reach 75 runs with the 18 home runs and 17 steals. Like Desmond above, if this happened in spite of a .244 average, he could finish in the top-12 shortstops this year.
It will be a hotly debated topic over the next month as more news about the Reyes suspension becomes known and based on how Story hits after his first 30 days in the majors. There is the case to be made to sell Story for the right price in fantasy leagues if an owner wants to pry him away. But he could also be a potential steal for the owners who tossed the late dart to land Story on their fantasy team. Story is going to hit for power, he will steal some bases and he is going to strike out. It now depends on how risk averse his owners are and what his ceiling could be for 2016. Use his ZiPS as a guide to his potential season. If he gets 500 at-bats for Colorado this year, he is capable of 20 home runs.
Most of the preseason buzz centered on the new young guns at shortstop with the attention focused on Correa, Francisco Lindor and Corey Seager. Trevor Story could find his way into the tier below them at a very depressed cost in drafts and auctions this year. Here is to hoping we find out.
After writing this, Story once again homered in Arizona to become the second player since 1900 with three home runs in his first two career games. The other was Joe Cunningham in 1954 for the St. Louis Cardinals. At this pace, Story may hit Jose Reyes into complete exile from Colorado.
Greg Jewett is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Greg, check out his archive and follow him @gjewett9.
