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MLB Future International Imports (Latin America)

MLB Future International Imports (Latin America)
Miguel_Cabrera_Tigers

Miguel Cabrera was a super-prospect as a 15-year-old. What teenager is set to follow in his footsteps?

Yesterday I covered 21 players that still live in Asia, but may have future value in the big leagues. Within that article was a primer for this article, so make sure you read that if you want to understand the framework. Today you will meet similar players, but from Latin America. Some of these players are phenoms in the truest sense, and some are high-ceiling, low-floor kids that may never sniff the Cuban all-star team, let alone a big league roster.

If you are looking for information on prospects that is more relevant to your 2016 fantasy team, last week I discussed 2016 rookies with four articles that may be to some benefit: AL hitters, NL Hitters, Pitchers Part One, Pitchers Part Two.

Now, let me introduce you to some future big-leaguers, and perhaps even a future hall-of-famer or two:

First Overall Picks

Kevin Maitan – Shortstop – Kiley McDaniel, who at the time was with FanGraphs, broke the news last year about a 14-year-old phenom out of Venezuela. Maitan is set to sign this summer, likely with the Atlanta Braves. When asked for comparable players, most scouts see him as a future Miguel Cabrera or Juan Gonzalez. He is a child in a gladiator’s body so he will likely shift to third base or right field before playing in the majors.

Lazaro Armenteros – Outfielder – When Willie Mays, Bryce Harper, and Bo Jackson are tossed around as similar talents, your ears perk up. You might think a player with these comparisons would be rated above Maitan, but the references are merely about his unworldly athleticism. He is already out of Cuba and showcasing himself for MLB teams. Apparently there is a mixed opinion on him because he might be too muscular, whatever that means.

Top Five Picks

Lourdes Gourriel Jr. – Shortstop – His father is a Cuban legend. His brother might currently be the best baseball player in the world (more on that later). Lourdes is also on his way to stardom, and perhaps in the big leagues. As the best athlete in a family with two hall-of-famers, there are extremely high expectations for the 21-year-old. He has said he wants to play in America, but only if the Cuban government allows it. There is plenty of time for him to come over, and if he does, I imagine him being a perennial all-star.

Abraham Gutierrez – Catcher – Imagine if Mike Piazza had great defensive instincts and a strong throwing arm. Say hello to Mr. Gutierrez. The 15-year-old from Venezuela is due to sign for a major deal this July, and once again the Braves are your front runners. When you are looking at kids this young, projections are often off, but that is an exciting ceiling.

Yulieski Gourriel – Third Basemen – His younger brother was mentioned just a few players ago. Yulieski is 31 years-old, but may be the best hitter on the planet. Before Jose Abreu signed with Chicago he batted .345/.481/.617 with 39 Ks in 264 at-bats, then came to America and put up a .964 OPS. If that is how Abreu transitioned then what would you expect out of a third basemen that hit .535/.604/1.012 with ONE strikeout in 106 trips to the plate? Granted, it is a smaller sample size, but his career numbers are also better than Abreu’s. Whether or not he is the best hitter in the world, one thing is for sure, if Cuba allows him to play in the USA then he will, otherwise he will not try. Come on Cuba, make this happen!

Top Fifteen Picks

Jorge Ona – Outfielder – There is more mystery surrounding this guy than most others on this list. He is just 19 years old, doesn’t have much of a professional record, and hasn’t said when he will sign even though he has already come over from Cuba. What we do know is that Baseball America said the right-fielder was the sixth best player left on the island before he left. He is expected to sign a deal for somewhere in the neighborhood of the $31.5 million deal that Yoan Moncada received last year.

Alfredo Despaigne – Outfielder – Five years ago he would have been much higher on the list when he hit .404 with an .814 SLG%. Now he just turned 29 years-old and has seen his numbers starting to go the wrong direction. Still, he would start for any team in the majors and likely put up similar numbers to Brandon Belt. When Jose Abreu was still on the island there was debate about which one was the best hitter.

Vladimir Guttierez – Relief Pitcher – The most talented pitcher from Cuba since Aroldis is a 20-year-old fireballer that is still developing in the bullpen. He throws 97 MPH, and is expected to add a few more ticks as his body fills out. Not only does he pump fastballs by hitters, but he has a power-curve and pinpoint control of four pitches. If that wasn’t enough, he throws from multiple arm angles, like El Duque used to. His ceiling is that of an MLB ace, but he still has a long way to go. He defected last season, but hasn’t signed yet. Gutierrez should be in for a monster payday.

Yasel Altoona – Shortstop – He is another 15-year-old due to sign this July. Scouts expect him to stick at shortstop and claim plenty of potential in his bat. There is no clear front-runner yet, but you can expect a three to five million dollar signing bonus. Of the prospects I have seen like this over the years, over 50% never play in the majors, but some who do end up superstars.

Norge Luis Ruiz – Starting Pitcher – Once widely regarded the best pitcher in Cuba, the 22-year-old workhorse is on his way to America to find a big league contract. He throws 96 MPH and has a bulldog presence on the mound like former Cardinals pitcher, Chris Carpenter. Whichever team has him will hope to develop more control and a useful secondary pitch or two.

Julio Pablo Martinez – Outfielder – Despite being just 5’8″ and a 150-pounds, the 19-year-old can flat out hit. In 2015 he was one of the top-15 batters in Cuba, posting a .337 batting average with a stellar batting eye and a powerful bat. If he continues to progress he could become a star that commands a seven-figure payday if/when he leaves the island for America.

Other First Round Values

Every season you will see between five and ten first-round compensation draft picks. These picks are given to a team that lost a free-agent they gave a qualifying offer to. If a team signs a player for 12 million per year and surrenders their first-round draft pick, then you can be assured they believe the player to be worth a current first-round pick, plus some. Using that logic, we can assume an MLB team would surrender a high pick to acquire these players if it was required in free-agency.

Hector Mendoza – Relief Pitcher – If anyone in Cuba could challenge Gutierrez’ claim to the best stuff on the island, it was Mendoza, but he recently signed with a Japanese team to close games in a more challenging league. The 21-year-old throws 98 MPH and gives up very few home runs. Given ample time to finish developing and prove himself in Japan, we may see him closing games in America before long.

Jose Adolis Garcia – Outfielder – The brother of Adonis Garcia is a hot prospect for Cuba. He had a down-year in 2015, but the year previous he was a .372/.411/.543 hitter, complete with good speed, a powerful arm, and tremendous range in the outfield. If he can become a more reliable player, the five-tool talent could shoot up this list.

Cionel Perez – Starting Pitcher – As an 18-year-old, the lefty led Cuba in strikeouts and ERA. He skipped the 2015 season to pursue a contract in major league baseball. He is a very polished young pitcher, but doesn’t share the same ceiling of other Cuban pitchers on this list because he doesn’t have as much velocity or movement. When it all comes together he could be Scott Kazmir in America.

Victor Mesa Jr. – Outfielder – His father is a legendary Cuban baseball player that was extremely fast. Mesa Jr. definitely received that gene, as he is perhaps the fastest player still on the island (now that Yoan Moncada is with the Red Sox). The 20-year-old has raw power despite weighing only 165 pounds, but it has yet to appear in games. His ceiling is that of Jacoby Ellsbury, but he also has a low floor.

Luis Robert – Outfielder/First Basemen – This 19-year-old outfield out of Cuba has long been regarded a raw prospect with a lot of potential. Last year he finally made a significant impact in the CNS, batting .351 with an .894 OPS. Right now his calling card is the hit-tool, but power is expected to arrive as his tall frame fills out. Think of him as a young Stephen Piscotty with a high floor for a youngster, but a fairly limited ceiling.

Supplemental Picks and Second Rounders

These players are likely to be published on my MLB worldwide top 300 prospect list that will be coming out soon but are not yet considered in the conversation as top-100 type talent.

Yadiel Hernandez – Outfielder – Older than most players on this list, the 28-year-old just defected to play in the big leagues. He is nothing more than a hitter, which is to the benefit of fantasy owners. Last season he put up a .369/.509/.535 line, which should look more like .290/.360/.400 here in America. If he is fortunate enough to sign with a team that needs another starting outfielder, he could be a useful piece in late 2016.

Randy Arozarena – Utility Defender – This 20-year-old is a swift defender up the middle of the infield and in center field. He is quite fast and has a good batters eye, but beyond that his skills are limited. He will really help a big league team with his versatile defense, but is likely to never hit .260 or hit 15 homers. Arozarena might command a $20 million payday from an MLB team, but he is better left off your dynasty fantasy roster.

Lazaro Alonso – First Basemen/Outfielder – He is another young player that left Cuba last season. The 21-year-old would be much high up this list if I thought he could actually play outfield in America, but his athleticism will likely limit him to first base. His best skill is plus power, that is said to be among the best on the island. Given some maturing in the high-minors, we may have a real slugger on our hands.

Luis Yander La O Camacho – Utility Infielder – With a 5:1 BB/K ratio, his discipline is far and away his strongest tool. The 23-year-old has a reliable bat as well, but will never hit for power. His wheels don’t set him apart, but they are also a factor, as he can be expected to steal 15 bases in the big leagues now that he has defected. A very clear comparison is Martin Prado, who has been a useful piece to winning ballclubs, but not so much fantasy rosters.

Jose Miguel Fernandez – Second Basemen – He is a 26-year-old second basemen that just transferred from Cuba. He should sign an MLB contract in the coming months and get his chance to start at the highest level. His numbers have not been overly impressive in Cuba, but he has remarkable plate discipline and is considered by scouts to be a very good Cuban player.

Yosvani Alarcon – Catcher – The 31-year-old has been a second-tier player in Cuba through his career, but really picked up his offensive production the past two seasons. In 2014 he hit .357/.416/.538 and in 2015 he increased his triple slash line to .397/.488/.743. There hasn’t been any speculation about Alarcon making the jump to the majors, but many Cubans have been doing it so it is entirely possible. If he comes over he would have no problem finding a starting job, but would likely be a C2 in standard fantasy leagues.

Fredrich Cepeda – Third Basemen – It will be a real shame if this Cuban star never plays a game in the USA. The 35-year-old outfielder has been a staple near the top of the Cuban game for two decades, having only a few times held an OPS under 1.000. If he had come over in his prime we would have had another Chipper Jones on our hands, but now he would merely hold his own in the majors.

Adrian Morejon – Starting Pitcher – As a 16-year-old he made the decision to cross the ocean and become a major league farmhand. The left-hander already possesses a 91 MPH fastball and an impressive curveball, but has abysmal command. Once an MLB team gets their hands on his talent, the sky may be the limit, but as for now we ought to have responsible expectations for this extremely raw teenager.

Guillermo Aviles – First Basemen – He has never been considered much of an MLB prospect, but you can’t ignore his success. As a 24-year-old he batted .340 with impressive plate discipline. He is young enough to make more of a name for himself, and if he keeps hitting, people will begin to pay more attention.

Livan Moinelo – Relief Pitcher – This 20-year-old lefty has been superb out of the bullpen, posting 8.7 career K/9 and a 2.40 ERA, but his ceiling is limited. He hasn’t left Cuba, but seeing the direction young Cubans are headed, it should happen before too long. If/when he does defect, he will likely remain in the bullpen, but could end up a great setup man or even a closer when he matures.

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