Yasmani Grandal’s power and plate discipline can’t be ignored
Yet again, Buster Posey is the clear No. 1 catcher. Whether you want to use a second- or third-round pick on him will depend upon the format of your league.
He has a batting average of .315 over the last four years (only Miguel Cabrera has better, with .331). And Posey finished ahead of Cabrera in points leagues last season.
With 21 appearances behind the plate in 2015, Kyle Schwarber will be a trendy early pick. 16 home runs in 69 games was a very impressive rookie campaign, but it came with a 28.2% strikeout rate and .246 AVG. Whether he can sustain elite production over a full season is debatable.
Amazingly there is little separation between the next 17 catchers. Russell Martin, Brian McCann, Salvador Perez, Jonathan Lucroy and Travis d’Arnaud are deservedly at the top of the list.
But it would not be a surprise to see them outperformed by any of the next picks – Stephen Vogt, Matt Wieters, Devin Mesoraco, Yan Gomes, Derek Norris, J.T. Realmuto, Yasmani Grandal, Blake Swihart, Francisco Cervelli, Wilson Ramos, Welington Castillo or Yadier Molina. In one-catcher leagues, it is difficult to justify jumping on a catcher early.
When investing a high pick, you also must remember that catchers hit the DL more than any other hitting position. Lucroy, Wieters, Gomes, Swihart, d’Arnaud, Grandal, Miguel Montero and Mesoraco all missed time on the disabled list last season.
The following players have shown the potential to outperform their draft position/auction price.
Yasmani Grandal – Dodgers
The Dodgers’ catcher has hit 14 and 15 home runs in the last two seasons, despite averaging only 366 at-bats. His strikeout rate has dropped from 26% to 21.6% while his walk rate has improved from 13.1% to 15.3%.
In fact, he took more walks last season than any other catcher. Although he already has a very high floor, look for the 26-year-old All-Star to take another step forward in 2016 and establish himself as a top-10 fantasy catcher with top-three potential.
Devin Mesoraco – Reds
There is potential profit to be made here. No catcher splits the opinion of the experts more than Mesoraco, ranging from the fourth catcher off the board to the 24th. Back in 2014, the 27-year-old hit 25 home runs with 80 RBI and a .893 OPS.
His 2015 campaign only lasted 51 at-bats before succumbing to hip surgery in June. Spring Training will give a better idea of Mesoraco’s health but keep an eye on him if he drops down your draft board.
J.T. Realmuto – Marlins
The 24-year-old was one of the best catchers in the final month of the season, hitting a .338 AVG with three home runs and a .890 OPS over the final 24 games. The former third-round pick showed impressive plate discipline in his first full season with an 86.3% contact rate, which put him among the top-60 hitters. By the end of the season, he had seven home runs, 21 doubles and had nabbed a position-high eight stolen bases.
Caleb Joseph – Orioles
The Orioles’ catcher will probably go undrafted but might be worth a flyer in two-catcher leagues if you believe that Wieters will continue struggling to return to the form he showed before his 2014 surgery. Joseph has hit 20 home runs over the last two seasons as a backup catcher. In 2015, he hit 11 home runs with 49 RBI. It’s not fantastic production, but it was still better than Lucroy’s output, the previous season’s highest-ranked catcher.
Curt Casali – Rays
No catcher surpassed the 144 wRC+ achieved by Curt Casali last year. He impressed with 10 home runs and a 0.898 OPS in just 101 AB. Despite the acquisition of Hank Conger, the Rays have indicated that the starting job is Casali’s to lose. His minor league stats did not suggest a major power breakout, but perhaps the 27-year-old will join the long list of catchers who have seen their hitting develop later in their careers.
Gavin Tramps is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Gavin, check out his archive or follow him @_tramps.
