How long will Matt Barnes’ hot streak last?
Week 9 is here and with it come the holidays. Just as Thanksgiving isn’t the same without football, Christmas Day just isn’t the same without the NBA, so here’s to hoping you all have a very merry and fantasy basketball-filled holiday weekend! We still haven’t seen a trade as of late, but with rumors gaining intensity, it shouldn’t be long before the first one becomes official.
For now, though, it’s still an extremely important time of the season. Now is time to build depth and improve consistency by not just frequenting the waiver wire, but by also looking to improve via the trade. To help you successfully sell high and buy low, we have listed the following candidates for your consideration.
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BUY
Robert Covington – SG/SF/PF – Philadelphia 76ers
He came on strong in late November and saw a 14-game stretch in which he scored in double-digits 13 times. He was lighting it up from beyond the arc, grabbing valuable rebounds and even had a three-game stretch that saw him collect a total of 21 steals! He’s still stealing the ball aplenty, but over the past four games, Covington hasn’t once topped nine points or shot better than 38 percent from the field.
He’s always had his ups and downs in the past, so this is nothing out of the ordinary, and it’s especially common in Philadelphia. Some owners might be quick to condemn the 76er, in which case it would be a good time to snag him while he’s cheap.
DeMarre Carroll – SF/PF – Toronto Raptors
Over his career, Carroll has made 45.4 percent of his shots from the floor and 72.6 percent from the line – both middle-of-the-pack numbers that will neither win nor lose you their respective categories. Carroll was shooting an unfortunate 38.6 and 63.4 percent from the field and the line, respectively, before suffering a knee contusion. He saw enough playing time, but the production wasn’t quite there.
Couple that with Carroll’s injury risk (knee contusion and plantar fasciitis this season), and you have plenty of uneasy owners. If you can handle the injury risk, Carroll is worth targeting as he can produce in multiple categories (including steals and threes) and should eventually improve upon the humble numbers he recorded to start the season.
HOLD
Will Barton – SG/SF – Denver Nuggets
Will Barton is one of those guys you think must be in his second or third season in the NBA, at the very most. It’s one of those names that just wasn’t very popular in the past. However, Barton is currently in the fifth year of his career – a career in which he never averaged more than 11 points or 24.4 minutes in a season…until now.
So far this season, Barton is averaging 15.7 points in 28.9 minutes, shooting 46 percent from the field and 86 percent from the line and is a leading contender for the NBA’s Sixth Man of the Year award. It might be tempting to sell the Denver forward, assuming he’s hit his ceiling and will return to Earth any day now, but that doesn’t appear to be the case.
Barton seems to have carved out a nice spot on the Nuggets’ lineup as a leader on the second-team and should continue to produce with relative consistency. Owners should be happy they got him at what was likely a steal and continue to cash in moving forward.
Gorgui Dieng – PF/C – Minnesota Timberwolves
Gorgui Dieng has been another nice surprise this season. He’s now averaging close to 30 minutes a game this month, which is nearly a 10-minute increase in playing time since November. He did average 30 minutes last year, but that was his first season seeing starter’s minutes, so the statistics that followed are probably a bit modest for projections.
In fact, Dieng is putting up numbers pretty similar to what he did last year, but he’s doing it with an average of six fewer minutes of court time per game. Dieng, a natural center who plays as a power forward, is coming off the bench behind Kevin Garnett but is still seeing more minutes than the veteran. With little to worry about from those behind him on the depth chart and with an NBA elder in front of him, Dieng looks to be a solid fantasy contributor going forward.
He could be a nice “buy” candidate if the price is right, but because his upside is currently a bit foggy, Dieng is more of a hold. Also, if he’s somehow still available, pick him up now. Regardless of what league you find yourself in, Dieng has value that shouldn’t be ignored.
SELL
Matt Barnes – SG/SF – Memphis Grizzlies
Over his last eight games, Barnes is averaging 12.1 points (46 percent from the field), 7.9 rebounds, 1.9 assists, 1.3 blocks, 1.8 steals and 2.3 threes in 30.9 minutes. Ever since replacing Randolph in the starting lineup, Barnes has been on fire, topping his career averages in every single fantasy category, including field goal percentage. He averaged over 30 minutes a game last season, and his current numbers even outdo his production from last season.
That means that a rise in playing time and a hot shooting streak are partially responsible for his current pace – meaning that if either were to change for the worse, Barnes’ value would likely follow suit. We’re looking at a streaky player who is currently playing pretty close to his ceiling, and who is starting over a big name player who’s very capable of turning his season around.
Could the Grizzlies’ new smaller and faster lineup work out with Barnes as a starter for the rest of the year? It certainly could, but Barnes is likely going to see an eventual drop in his efficiency at some point. If he can’t remain in the starting lineup, he’ll then see a much larger drop, making him a good sell-high candidate.
Tony Parker – PG – San Antonio Spurs
Oh, what do ya know? The Spurs are pretty great…yet again. It seems like by this time every year the Spurs find themselves coasting as a top-three team in the West.
Currently, the Spurs are 24-5 on the season and have won their last six games. They’re second in the West, just behind Golden State, and it hasn’t even looked that difficult. Tim Duncan is seeing fewer minutes and more rest, and Parker can’t be far from experiencing the same fate.
Coach Gregg Popovich has never been shy about resting his stars, and has been known to make last second roster changes resulting in costly DNPs for fantasy owners. Therefore, it’s safe to say that Pop isn’t very popular (sorry) in the fantasy world, so if you have an aging player like Parker who’s still producing, make the move before Popovich’s part-time philosophy takes hold. Parker seems to be a consistent producer on a per-minute basis, but his minutes are going to shrink as long as the Spurs are still winning in the regular season.
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George Haw is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from George, check out his archive and follow him @georgeWarfieldH.
