How should Arian Foster owners attempt to replace the top RB?

Justin Forsett (2014). C.J. Anderson (2014). Denard Robinson (2014). Devonta Freeman (2015). James Jones (2015). Chris Johnson (2015). Over the last two seasons, each of these players was a valuable fantasy commodity for all or part of a season as a result of the injury or departure of the prevailing starter. Bernard Pierce. Montee Ball. Toby Gerhart. Tevin Coleman. Davante Adams. Andre Ellington. These were the players that were the consensus favorites to take over and were drafted/picked up ahead of the eventual starters.

With the season-ending injury to Houston Texans running back Arian Foster, Alfred Blue is the presumed starter in Houston going forward. The fantasy community must once again determine whether Blue is the next Justin Forsett or the next Bernard Pierce. Then again, perhaps neither. In 2014, with Adrian Peterson out for the season, both Jerick McKinnon and Matt Asiata formed a very underwhelming committee.

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Thanks to Foster’s frequent injury history, we have a very good idea about what the Texans look like without him. Over the last two seasons, Arian Foster has missed six games. Blue has been the clear lead back in the majority of those games, posting yardage totals of 156, 139, 78, 66, 49, and 10. He scored one total touchdown in that span. In each of his two big games, he carried the ball more than 30 times, which fantasy owners shouldn’t count on thanks to the Texans’ porous defense. In rare cases, Chris Polk has been the more productive back but has never gotten any real volume.

There is no question that Blue must be owned in all leagues. However, history tells us that Chris Polk probably should be as well. Blue has shown that he has a high upside when given enough volume, but has been somewhat inconsistent in his performance. This inconsistency opens the door for competition. In his last NFL coaching job, Texans coach Bill O’Brien was the offensive coordinator in New England (2011). That year, four different running backs led the team in rushing yards in a game. With a player like Arian Foster, you have the luxury of running a one-back system. With Foster gone, O’Brien has no need to remain loyal to a single back.

In such an environment, there are essentially four possibilities.

• Blue is a true bell-cow and productive with his workload.
• Blue leads some sort of committee.
• Polk takes over after outperforming Blue in a committee.
• Some unknown third player wins the job or is picked up by the Texans.

Only one of these scenarios involves Blue becoming any more than a flex player. Based on past performance, it would be difficult to expect him to perform at more than an RB2 level even if he wins the job.

With all of this information and uncertainty, what action should fantasy owners take? While it seems incredibly tempting, I would recommend caution before using a top-two waiver priority or all of a FAAB budget on Blue. Think of the player in your league that wasted a top waiver pick on Terrance Williams when Dez Bryant went down. Blue is a better target for fantasy owners that are lower in the top five of waiver priority. With that dreaded 3-5 spot, you are too far down to get the best player, but too high to waste your position on a streaming defense or a future prospect. As a result, you tend to lose out on both. If you are in the lower half of the priority list or if he clears waivers, drop one of the big disappointments like Peyton Manning or Alfred Morris and take a flier on Chris Polk. At such a low cost, you can always drop him after three or four weeks if he remains behind Blue on the depth chart.

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In a fantasy football season, we often have one shot to get the next Justin Forsett. When a top-10 running back goes down, it feels like the ideal opportunity. As you’re headed to your waiver wire on Tuesday, remember that historically, the “next man up” has not often ended the year as the best man up. In the case of Alfred Blue, you must decide how much you’re willing to bet that he not only becomes a bell-cow, but a highly productive one. Outside of two 30+ carry games over the last two years, it seems that Blue is more likely to be the rule than the exception.

Brian Hoffman is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Brian, check out his archive and follow him @hoffmaba1.