How much fantasy potential does Tyler Lockett’s athleticism and work ethic provide?
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Today’s question comes from Robert Pitts:
- Who has the bigger upside? Tyler Lockett or Matt Jones?
- What’s your take on Davante Adams?
Every league is different. Every team is different. Remember that when you read any fantasy football article. What is suitable for one situation may not be appropriate for another.
Who has the bigger upside? Tyler Lockett or Matt Jones?
Lockett of Jones? Ferrari or Range Rover? The question of who has the bigger upside is a difficult one to answer. They play different positions and are in two completely different environments. I will try my best to provide as much color on this situation and see if we can answer that question adequately.
Lockett is a 5-foot-10, 182-pound wide receiver for the Seattle Seahawks. He played his college ball at Kansas State and ran a 4.40-second 40-yard dash, 6.89-second three-cone, with a 35 ½ inch vertical jump, and 10-foot 1-inch broad jump at the NFL Combine. The Seahawks traded a third, fourth, fifth and sixth round pick to move up to select Lockett at 69 overall.
He did not disappoint, as he returned a kickoff for a 103-yard touchdown in the preseason opener and followed that up with a 67-yard punt return for a touchdown in the third preseason game. What’s been more eye-opening has been the 129 yards and six catches with a touchdown.
Seattle offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell said, “he’s come in and done a fantastic job of what we’re asking him to do, he’s picked up a lot of the offense. For a young guy, he’s light years ahead of where I thought he’d be. He’s a legitimate threat for us at wide receiver.”
How legitimate? Let’s see. In the blue corner, entering his fifth season in the league…Doug Baldwin (196 receptions, 2,757 yards and 15 touchdowns for his career). In the red corner, entering his fourth season…Jermaine Kearse (63 receptions, 914 yards and five touchdowns for his career). Newly acquired tight end Jimmy Graham will be the undisputed No. 1 option for Russell Wilson in 2015. Let’s project roughly 100 targets for Graham and around 80 receptions. Last year, Wilson completed 285 passes. You do the math.
The talent that Lockett possesses is undeniable, but this is the NFL. Everyone was the big fish in their local pond. There’s a fine line that separates the talented from the successful, and that usually entails intangibles like work ethic and intelligence. Below are quotes from some of Lockett’s teammates:
- Doug Baldwin: “His work ethic is something that stands out to me. And I think that’s what’s going to ultimately drive him to success of being great, not only in this offense, but in this league. He has all the tools, all the ability and the work ethic and the intelligence, so there’s nothing in his way.”
- K.J. Wright: “This is the NFL. Everybody is good. But he’s looking very impressive.”
- Jimmy Graham: “Explosive player, young, but understands the game already.”
- Ricardo Lockette: “His attention to detail and his willingness to be great and just his confidence in himself.”
- Justin Britt: “Just somebody who came in and worked his butt off right away, and you can tell that he wants to be great, and it shows.”
(Courtesy of Sheil Kapadia, ESPN.com)
I realize there’s a lot of hyperbole in the above quotes. As of this writing, it’s still preseason for the Seahawks. With that said, Lockett is talented and is actually in the perfect environment to make an impact. Pete Carroll has instilled a culture of competition up in Seattle. If you deserve to play, you will play. If Lockett proves his worth, he’ll be given a fair shake to earn a significant role. The climb up the depth chart does not look to be a daunting one. The case for Lockett seems to be a compelling one. Let’s delve into Jones now.
Jones is a running back for the Washington Redskins, who played his college ball at the University of Florida. He is 6 feet 2 inches and 231 pounds. Also, he ran a 4.61-second 40-yard dash, 6.84-second three-cone, benched 20 reps, jumped 31 ½ inches vertically and 9 feet 4 inches in the broad jump. The Redskins selected Jones in the 2015 NFL Draft with the 95th overall pick.
Jones was not as prolific as Lockett in college, primarily due to a knee injury that sidelined him for most of his sophomore year. While Lockett stayed at school all four years, Jones entered the NFL Draft after his junior season, in which he rushed 166 times for 817 yards with six touchdowns.
The Washington Redskins are coming off a season in which they won four games. Early signs don’t show much improvement in store for 2015. Kirk Cousins is now the quarterback after the RG3 debacle. The one main constant over the past three years has been Alfred Morris.
Morris has not missed a game, tallied over 1,000 yards every season, averaged more than four yards per carry each season and never scored less than seven touchdowns. He’s also entering the final year of his contract. Do the Redskins follow in the footsteps of their divisional rival Dallas Cowboys and just give Alf an insane number of carries, knowing that they will probably not re-sign him in the offseason?
Head coach Jay Gruden gave us all some indication a few days ago. “A lot depends on how the game goes…A lot is going to depend on our drives. Do we have a 12-play drive, do we have a three-and-out? If we have a bunch of three-and-outs then I don’t imagine Alfred is going to get taken out too much.” That’s cute Jay. Making a lot of assumptions about your defense, aren’t you?
Morris has always been game script dependent. The 17 receptions he hauled in last year were the most in his career. To make matters worse:
Alfred Morris' career stats when RG3 starts: 4.89 YPC, 22 TD (33 games). Morris' stats when Cousins/McCoy starts: 3.60 YPC, 5 TD (12 games).
— Evan Silva (@evansilva) December 8, 2014
The Redskins are probably going to have to chase points this year. Jones is already being hailed as the third-down back. Last year’s third-down back, Roy Helu, caught 42 passes for 477 yards last year. I’d expect the same, if not more, for Jones this year.
The current Redskins regime likes Jones, as they scooped him up in the third round of the NFL Draft. He’s already been dubbed the third-down back with the possibility for more, but Morris is considered the “bell cow.” Plus, the Redskins’ offensive line is pretty porous and the team in general could be terrible.
When I first thought about Robert’s question, I was definitely leaning towards the Jones camp. After delving a little deeper into the situations, I favor Lockett’s better. Remember, this is purely in a vacuum disregarding league and team specifics.
What’s your take on Davante Adams?
On to the Robert’s second question about Adams.
I am very high on Adams. I believe that he can finish as a WR1. I remember doing research on Derek Carr and becoming familiar with Adams because he was Carr’s main target. At Fresno State, Carr peppered Adams with targets, which allowed him to lead the nation with 131 receptions in 2013. Granted, the Fresno State offense was a spread-based attack so the numbers are inflated.
The guy is big, strong and can make the ridiculous catches.
Adams is 6-foot-1 and 212 pounds. He ran a 4.56-second 40-yard dash, 6.82 second three-cone drill, broad jumped 10 feet 3 inches, and posted a vertical of 39 ½ inches. According to CBS Sports NFL Draft Profile, “wins at the catch-point, demonstrating good leaping ability, timing, and hand-eye coordination.” His main weakness is lack of elite speed. Dez Bryant clocked in at 4.52 in the 40-yard dash. Just saying.
We all know about what happened to Jordy Nelson and the opportunity that lays in front of Adams, so I won’t go into that further. What I will highlight is Aaron Rodgers gushing about Adams earlier in the offseason. “Davante is a very polished player, and he has an excellent demeanor for a guy who’s going to be a star.” Then Rodgers goes on to say, “I’m really proud of his approach and his attitude. It makes you want to get him the ball more. It makes you watch the film and have regrets about not giving him more opportunities.” I don’t know about you, but when I hear arguably the best quarterback in the game saying he should feed the ball more to a particular player, I go:
How will Adams match up with opposing No. 1 corners? That is a legitimate concern and one we won’t know until the games are played. With that said, his nimble feet and size should allow him to more than hold his own. We will have to wait and see if the technique has improved, but he has the best quarterback in the game throwing to him.
I came across an interesting stat. Last year, Cobb and Nelson both were targeted 25 times in the red zone. Cobb caught 16 passes for 10 touchdowns. Nelson had 12 receptions for five touchdowns. Adams managed 11 targets and caught six for three touchdowns.
Talent, opportunity and situation. Don’t overthink this one.
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Stan Son is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Stan, check out his archive and follow him@Stan_Son.
