Moving to a less pass-friendly team makes Jimmy Graham’s current ADP just too high

Fantasy drafts are filled with options and often times, you may run into an unavoidable situation where a player that is consistently being drafted highly, is in the queue next to other quality guys. Average draft position (ADP) doesn’t necessarily mean that’s where you should draft a guy. It can also be used to see who is currently being overvalued.

You may know who those players are. If you don’t, that’s what we are here for. To help fill in the blank, we asked our featured experts to name players being drafted in the top 50 who are least likely to end up on one of their teams.

Expert Pick Recap

Q. What player with a top 50 ADP is least likely to be on any of your fantasy teams?

Jimmy Graham (TE – SEA)
ADP: Overall #26 | TE #2

“No question, the answer here for me is Graham. He’s a wonderful player, but he couldn’t have landed in a less appealing spot. The Seahawks simply don’t put the ball in the air. As many of you probably know, Drew Brees completed more passes last year (456) than Russell Wilson attempted (452). The last Seattle receiver to see 100 targets in a season was Mike Williams back in 2010. Graham routinely saw 130-plus targets per year in New Orleans, from Earth’s most accurate passer; he’ll likely draw 95-105 in the season ahead.”
– Andy Behrens (Yahoo)

Andre Ellington (RB – ARI)
ADP: Overall #44 | RB #19

“Aside from the top tier of quarterbacks going too early for my liking, I’m going to avoid using a top-50 pick on Ellington. He seems unlikely to receive the volume of touches worthy of that ranking. If I were to take a high-upside back at that level, I’d be more inclined to select Joseph Randle. If I wanted someone with a better lock on touches, Jonathan Stewart or T.J. Yeldon would be fine picks. Ellington seems like a guy that has too much downside at his current ADP.”
– R.J. White (CBS Sports)

Matt Forte (RB – CHI)
ADP: Overall #7 | RB #6

“Last year was an exceptional one for Forte with a record number of targets (130) and receptions (102) for a running back in Mark Trestman’s pass-oriented offense. However, when called upon to run the ball, he only averaged 3.9 yards per carry, his lowest per carry rate since 2009. The new coaching staff, led by head coach John Fox and offensive coordinator Adam Gase, favor a conservative run-oriented offense, which will certainly lower Forte’s target and reception totals this season. In addition, Forte is turning 30 years old, an age when the vast majority of running backs show considerable decline in production. Despite all the changes and improvements that the new regime is putting in place, one thing that hasn’t improved much is the offensive line, which will also hamper Forte’s production. All that is enough to keep me away from Forte, who will likely end up with an ADP somewhere in the second round.”
– Tim McCullough (RotoExperts)

LeSean McCoy (RB – BUF)
ADP: Overall #13 | RB #8

“Even before the hamstring injury, I wasn’t likely to take McCoy at his current ADP. Sure, he landed in a run-heavy system, so carries shouldn’t be a problem. But the Buffalo offense isn’t going to be as efficient as Chip Kelly’s offense in Philadelphia. Throw in an offensive coordinator (Greg Roman) who isn’t known for utilizing his running backs in the passing game and it’s likely that McCoy’s red zone chances and targets will both decrease in 2015.”
– John Paulsen (4for4.com)

C.J. Anderson (RB – DEN)
ADP: Overall #12 | RB #7

“I likely won’t end up with any shares of Anderson this season, with a top-15 ADP. (He went fourth overall to Jake Ciely in the FLEX Standard League Draft last weekend). The first round is for consistency, in my opinion, and there have been just way too many one-and-done running backs in NFL history for me to put all my eggs in Anderson’s basket with a first-round pick. I’d rather draft Montee Ball late, and roll those dice.”
– David Gonos (DavidGonos.com)

Odell Beckham Jr. (WR – NYG)
ADP: Overall #16 | WR #4

“ODB will not be on any of my teams this year. With a current ADP of around 16 and going ahead of players like Julio Jones, Calvin Johnson, Jordy Nelson and A.J. Green, I just don’t find the value. No debating what he did last year, but the HAMMY must always be on your mind with him, as it’s something he has dealt with going back to his LSU days. I want safer in my first 2 round so I will shy away. Targets could come down as well with Victor Cruz and Rueben Randle there to share with.
– Ken Zalis (PressBox)

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Thank you to all the experts who gave us their players to avoid. For more great advice, follow them on Twitter.