Nearly 60% of NBA ‘stars’ are drafted in the top five picks

In the first installment of this NBA Draft preview series, we learned that only 5% of all drafted players from 1995-2012 developed into “stars.” Check out the previous article for a refresher on what qualifies as a star.

In this article, we will dig deeper into the historical data to determine where “stars” are most likely to be selected in this Thursday’s draft and which specific picks have the highest likelihood of becoming “stars.”

Where do “stars” come from in the draft?

Although the draft does a poor job of selecting players that will stick in the league (41% of drafted players have careers lasting less than three years or who average less than 10 minutes per game), teams actually do an admirable job of drafting “stars” early. As illustrated in the chart below, nearly 85% of “stars” are drafted in the top 10, and nearly all “stars” are drafted in the first round.

With this knowledge, be wary of any team that is looking to trade out of the top 10. A top 10 pick, particularly a top five pick, is a major asset that teams should treasure and treat as a precious commodity. For example, the New York Knicks have been rumored to be shopping the fourth pick for University of Kentucky freshman Trey Lyles, a player projected to go outside of the top 10. In doing so, the Knicks would be trading a pick with a much better chance of landing a “star” for multiple picks with a significantly lower chance of yielding a “star.” This would be a very risky move for the Knicks, and one Knicks’ fans should hope does not happen.

Which picks should we expect to see “stars” selected in?

Now that we have established that 96% of “stars” are selected in the first round, we gain a much higher appreciation of a first-round draft pick’s importance and value. So, which picks should we expect to see “stars” taken in during the upcoming draft? Using data from the 1995-2012 drafts, we’ve created a simple table below illustrating how many “stars” we can expect to be selected in this year’s draft and where we can expect them to be taken.

*Based on the numbers, we can expect a “star” to be taken once every nine years in the second round. The two “stars” taken in the second round over the past 18 years are Manu Ginobili #57 (1999) & Marc Gasol #48 (2007).

Putting all of the data together, we can expect an average of three “stars” to be selected in the upcoming draft, with an 84% likelihood that all three are selected in the top 10. As for odds of picking a “star” in each of the individual picks of the top 10, see the chart below:

It certainly is not surprising that the first pick has the highest chance of landing a “star” with a 50% success rate. What is surprising, though, is how poorly the second pick has performed over the past 18 years, with only a one in six chance of developing into a “star.” The true consolation prize of the lottery is not the second pick, but is actually the third and fifth picks, which both have the second highest likelihood (33%) of landing a “star” in the draft. Even more interesting is that the ninth pick, along with the fourth pick, has the third highest likelihood (28%) of selecting a “star.”  In fact, it can be argued that the ninth pick provides the second-most “value” in the draft, behind only the first pick.

While the Minnesota Timberwolves (first pick) should obviously be thrilled, the Philadelphia 76ers (third pick) and the Orlando Magic (fifth pick) have the next highest likelihoods of selecting a “star” in this year’s draft. Additionally, with the ninth pick, the Charlotte Hornets will likely get great value out of their draft pick. Note that since Philadelphia drafted Joel Embiid with the third pick last year, the likelihood is very high (two in three) that either Embiid or whomever the 76ers select with the third pick this June will become a star, according to history.

So, who are the players that have made the third and fifth picks successes over the past 18 years?

This is certainly an impressive group. There are many future Hall of Famers on this list.

And who are the players that have made the second and eighth picks disappointments?

Very pedestrian group here. There are a whole lot of benchwarmers on this list. Clearly not a good return on investment for a top 10 pick.

In conclusion, when watching this year’s draft, pay close attention to the top 10 picks (particularly the first, third, and fifth), as we can expect three of those picks to develop into future NBA “stars.” After the tenth pick, the draft tends to thin out and the possibility of a “star” being selected drops significantly (it is unlikely any player selected from picks 11-60 will develop into a future “star”). If history holds true, the Minnesota Timberwolves (first), Philadelphia 76ers (third), and the Orlando Magic (fifth) have the best chance of drafting a future “star” in this year’s draft, while the Los Angeles Lakers (second) and Detroit Pistons (eighth) are the most likely to be disappointed.

In the final installment of our draft series this week, we will examine the historical performance of International players selected in the first round, and if these players have been truly worth the investment their drafting teams have made in them. This is highly relevant for Thursday’s draft, as three International players (Kristaps Porzingis, Mario Hezonja, and Emmanuel Mudiay) are all projected to be selected in the first 10 picks.

Brian Dowdy is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Brian, check out his archive and follow him @BDiddy76.