Can Jose Altuve and the Astros make the playoffs in 2015?
Far-fetched? Perhaps. Impossible? Not by a long shot.
With all the offseason moves the Houston Astros have made, they’ve put together a package to rival that of the Cinderella story that was the Kansas City Royals last season. Let’s take a deeper look at my prediction.
Here is where the Astros ranked in offense last year by category:
- Runs Scored: 629 (Tied for 21st with the New York Mets)
- Hits: 1,317 (Ranked 25th)
- Doubles: 240 (Tied for 28th with the Atlanta Braves)
- Triples: 19 (Tied for 28th with the New York Mets)
- Home Runs: 163 (Ranked 4th)
- RBI: 596 (Ranked 21st)
- Walks: 495 (Ranked 12th)
- Strikeouts: 1,442 (Ranked 2nd)
- Stolen Bases: 122 (Tied for 3rd with the Cincinnati Reds)
- Caught Stealing: 37 (Ranked 11th)
- Team Average: .242 (Ranked 25th)
- On-Base Percentage: .309 (Ranked 21st)
- Slugging Percentage: .383 (Ranked 15th)
- On-Base Plus Slugging: .692 (Ranked 16th)
Not the best of rankings, to say the least. Outside of home runs and stolen bases (nearly half of which came from a single player, Jose Altuve), the Astros were in the bottom half or third of the league.
But here are the notable offensive additions to the roster made over the offseason:
Jed Lowrie
Colby Rasmus
Evan Gattis
Luis Valbuena
When calculating what these players have averaged in their careers, here is where the team would rank overall in the upcoming 2015 campaign.
- Runs Scored: 957 ( Potential 2015 Rank: 13th)
- Hits: 1,355 (Potential 2015 Rank: 20th)
- Doubles: 257 (Potential 2015 Rank: 21st)
- Triples: 19 (No change in rank – Tied for 28th)
- Home Runs: 170 (No change in rank – 4th)
- RBI: 685 (Potential 2015 Rank: 8th)
- Walks: 553 (Potential 2015 Rank: 2nd)
- Strikeouts: 1,481 (Potential 2015 Rank: 1st)
- Stolen Bases: 122 (No change in rank – Tied for 3rd)
- Caught Stealing: 37 (No change in rank – 11th)
- Team Average: .262 (Potential 2015 Rank: 5th)
- On-Base Percentage: .338 (Potential 2015 Rank: 1st)
- Slugging Percentage: .508 (Potential 2015 Rank: Again, 1st)
- On-Base Plus Slugging: .776 (Potential 2015 Rank: 1st)
As you can see from the bold print, so many of these categories have the potential to improve, some significantly, based on the offseason additions. The Astros have the potential to field an above-average offense, if not one of the best in the league, in most categories. Strikeouts remain a concern, but even so the Astros will field several fantasy-relevant players on offense.
When it comes to pitching, Houston was roughly in the middle of the pack last season. The front of their rotation pitched well, especially young arms Dallas Keuchel and Collin McHugh, but they didn’t receive consistent production from their other starters. Their bullpen was a mess, and they are hoping a unit led by Luke Gregerson, Chad Qualls and Pat Neshek can show improvement in 2015.
The AL West remains a formidable division, and the Astros only won 70 games in 2014. But that was a 19-win improvement, and they appear to be inline for additional improvement this season. Will it be enough to make the playoffs? I think so.
James Zeankowski is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from James, check out his archive and follow him @tvwizard85.
