Lamar Miller is staring at a tremendous opportunity in Miami with Reggie Bush out of the picture.
The NFL season doesn’t officially kick off for another 78 days (yes, we’re counting). While that may seem like a ways off, it’s never too early to begin prepping for your fantasy draft. Whether that involves checking out fantasy rankings or keeping up on your research, it’s all about doing what you can to stay ahead of the competition.
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With that goal in mind, we’ve enlisted several Featured Pros to give their opinion on 5 key running back questions. Read on to find out who the experts like as breakthrough candidates, the player they like as this year’s top rookie back and more.
Featured Pros
Jeff Brubach (The Fake Football)
Kyle Wachtel (Forensic Fantasy)
Q1: Who is your top breakthrough candidate (RB) for 2013 and how early should he be targeted in a 12 team, Standard draft?
Lamar Miller (MIA): Compared to some other options (specifically David Wilson and Chris Ivory), Miller has less competition (than Wilson) for touches and a better passing game (than Ivory) to keep defenses honest to go along with his game-breaking speed. He should be a 3rd round target. – Kevin Hanson (EDSFootball)
Lamar Miller (MIA): Miller saw limited action in 2012 as he struggled to adjust to the NFL’s speed and complexity, however in the two games he carried the ball 10+ times, he averaged 6.9 yards per carry and averaged 9.9 fantasy points per game. He should be the Dolphins’ featured back this season and with a current ADP of 44.01 you can typically find him in the 4th round. – Micah James (FFMagicMan)
Chris Ivory (NYJ): Ivory is big (222 pounds), fast (4.48 40-yard dash) and runs angry. The Jets have no choice but to rely on the running game, which provides the perfect opportunity for Ivory to break through in 2013. His ADP has surprisingly stayed at a very reasonable price (6th round), but I grade him as an early 4th round selection. – Kyle Wachtel (Forensic Fantasy)
Jonathan Stewart (CAR): Since he isn’t being drafted as early as previous years, I think Jonathan Stewart is a decent investment in the 8th round. We know he has the skills to break out in a serious way and is a nice piece of a fantasy bench with huge profit potential if Carolina wises up and lets JStew lead the way. – Jeff Brubach (The Fake Football)
Q2: True/False: A revived Steven Jackson will perform at a RB1 level for the Falcons. Also, give us your prediction for his rushing yards and total TDs.
TRUE: If there are any concerns with Jackson, it’s his age (turns 30 next month) and cumulative workload (2,395 career carries). As the only real option for the Rams, he had eight straight seasons with 1,000-plus rushing yards. In the Falcons’ high-powered offense, he should extend that streak with a legitimate opportunity to score double-digit touchdowns for the first time since 2006. Projection: 1,075 rushing yards, 12 total TDs. – Kevin Hanson (EDSFootball)
TRUE: If husky Michael Turner can reach double digit scores in Atlanta, then the much quicker Jackson will certainly have a RB1 level season for the Falcons. 1,075 rush yards/12 TDs & 400 rec yards/2 TDs are in store. – Jeff Brubach (The Fake Football)
TRUE: I currently have Jackson as my #11 ranked running back, so yes, I see him as a low-end RB1 in 2013. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him pilfer some of Jacquizz Rodgers’ third-down work and some goal-line looks from Tony Gonzalez as well. I’m not a big projections guy, but I would expect Jackson to end 2013 somewhere in the neighborhood of 1,100 rushing yards and 9 total TDs. – Micah James (FFMagicMan)
TRUE: Michael Turner managed to reach double-digit touchdowns in all five seasons with the Falcons; Jackson can do the same while being more effective as a runner and in the passing game. I currently have him projected for 1,050 rushing yards with 11 total touchdowns. – Kyle Wachtel (Forensic Fantasy)
Q3: You can pick 1 Cincinnati RB: BenJarvus Green-Ellis or rookie Giovani Bernard. Who do you want in a redraft league?
Giovani Bernard: While I expect their fantasy production to be relatively similar, I’d give the edge to Bernard (especially in PPR formats). As the season progresses, I expect Bernard to earn a larger share of the workload and be more valuable than The Law Firm down the stretch. – Kevin Hanson (EDSFootball)
Giovani Bernard: I would rather roll with Gio. BGE is quite sluggish (under 4.0 ypc since 2010) and if both backs would provide my team with running back depth, I would rather take the more explosive back with higher upside. – Jeff Brubach (The Fake Football)
BenJarvus Green-Ellis: I understand the allure of the rookie running backs, especially given the triumvirate of Martin, Morris and Richardson last season, but please…enough with the Gio-love. The Law Firm isn’t sexy, but he has been a Top-25 running back three straight seasons, and while Bernard may overtake him by season’s end I expect Green-Ellis to put up similar numbers to last season – maybe not 1000 yards, but one or two more TDs should have him in the low-end RB2 conversation yet again. – Micah James (FFMagicMan)
BenJarvus Green-Ellis: According to reports, Green-Ellis is the best bet to lead Cincinnati RBs in snaps, which doesn’t surprise me because I expected a slower transition. BJGE has the higher floor, Giovani Bernard has the higher ceiling. I won’t be reaching for either this year, but I’d give the edge to the veteran with the lackluster skill set. If he strings together a nice start, find a suitor and send him packing quickly. – Kyle Wachtel (Forensic Fantasy)
Q4: The Rams have a logjam of RBs with the potential to emerge (Isaiah Pead, Daryl Richardson & Zac Stacy). Who should owners target first?
Isaiah Pead: I downgrade Richardson a bit since he wasn’t able to separate himself with a decent workload in 2012, and the Rams invested much more in Pead (50th pick) than Stacy (160th pick). Nothing concrete to work with at this point in the summer, but Pead is who should be targeted first, even despite the suspension. – Jeff Brubach (The Fake Football)
Isaiah Pead: I believe Pead will be the lead back in what will very likely be a committee approach. The Week 1 suspension doesn’t change my feelings on Pead or his early potential, but until we get some more clarity during training camp, I’m really steering clear of any Rams’ running back. I might take a 11th or 12th round gamble on Zac Stacy’s upside but other than that, I’m walking on the other side of the street. – Micah James (FFMagicMan)
Daryl Richardson: Zac Stacy is potentially the most complete RB of the group, but nothing is assured for a rookie RB, especially one that was drafted in Round 5. The Rams invested a 2012 2nd Round pick in Isaiah Pead, but he was beat out by Daryl Richardson last season and will be suspended for Week 1. In a murky situation that may end up as a full blown RBBC, I’ll take Richardson by a hair over Pead; he may not be a bell cow, but his role on the offense is most secure and he should improve on his 2012 numbers. – Kyle Wachtel (Forensic Fantasy)
Zac Stacy: I wouldn’t “target” any of the Rams backs as I would prefer to draft the one that is available the latest. With Pead suspended for the first game and Richardson more of a change-of-pace back, it wouldn’t surprise me if Stacy gets a large opportunity in Week 1 and runs with it (no pun intended). – Kevin Hanson (EDSFootball)
Q5: Who will be this year’s top rookie RB and what’s your prediction for his rushing yards and total TDs?
Le’Veon Bell (PIT): Popular choice Montee Ball is competing with a proven (often-injured, but proven) NFL back & a highly-touted 2nd year player in Denver, and I don’t see him posting better numbers than Bell, who is competing against two running backs that couldn’t get the job done in 2012. As long as Bell isn’t a complete liability in pass protection, I see him posting around 950 yards & 7 rushing TDs in 2013, beating Ball by about 30-40 fantasy points. – Micah James (FFMagicMan)
Le’Veon Bell (PIT): Despite his size, Bell is a good receiver out of the backfield and offensive coordinator Todd Haley has talked up Bell and called him a “three-down back.” Compared to other rookie rushers, some of whom are more talented, Bell appears to have the best opportunity to get the most touches. Projection: 975 rushing yards, 7 total TDs. – Kevin Hanson (EDSFootball)
Montee Ball (DEN): The NCAA’s all-time leader in rushing touchdowns, Montee Ball, found himself in a premier destination. Peyton Manning makes everyone around him better. Knowshon Moreno’s career was resuscitated in 2012 and as a rookie, Joseph Addai recorded 1,406 total yards and 8 touchdowns under the direction of Manning. I have him projected for a rather cautious 800 rushing yards and 8 total TDs. – Kyle Wachtel (Forensic Fantasy)
Montee Ball (DEN): This comes down to Ball, Bell and Lacy and I am leaning Montee Ball’s way right now. Denver rushed for more yards than Pittsburgh and Green Bay in 2012 so Ball should have a shot to rumble his way to decent yardage in addition to capitalizing on frequent red zone trips via the sharp Denver passing game. – Jeff Brubach (The Fake Football)
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Thanks to the Featured Pros for stopping by to share their running back advice. If you’d like to get more insight from the experts, be sure to visit their sites and follow them on Twitter.
We’ll follow up with pressing questions at the other positions over the coming weeks. Until then, best of luck with your draft prep!
