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Week 11’s Most Accurate Experts

With only 5 weeks left in the fantasy season, we’ve officially reached crunch time. The playoffs are on the horizon and it goes without saying that every decision owners make carries extra weight.

 

While the stakes are increasing on your fake football fields, they’re also going up for the experts in our accuracy contest. A quick glance at our YTD leaderboard shows the standings are ultra tight, with the title of “Most Accurate Expert” up for grabs. That means the pundits have more incentive than ever to make sure they’re giving you the best advice down the stretch.

 

So which experts did the best job with their week 11 predictions? We’ll break it down by reviewing the top 10 (out of 74 experts).

 

Week 11 Leaderboard

 

*See how all 74 experts ranked for the week

 

Notes:

 

  • There’s no doubting who delivered the most accurate advice in week 11. By finishing in the top 5 for 3 (QB, RB, WR) of the 4 positions that factor into our overall scoring, Ross Miles (Pro Football Focus) cruised to the weekly title. In fact, Miles is the only expert this season to accomplish the “top 5 across 3 positions” feat for a single week. His best predictions came at the RB position where he ranked #1 and delivered the top sleeper pick of the week. That pick was the decision to slot Lions RB, Kevin Smith, higher than any other expert (RB #25). We can only hope Smith owners followed the advice since Smith put up the best fantasy performance of the week (201 total yards, 3 TDs). The quality predictions didn’t stop there for Miles. He also had the foresight NOT to rank Willis McGahee, undoubtedly due to injury concerns. McGahee himself may have been wise to heed that advice since he was kryptonite for both fantasy owners (-.2 points) and his own team (costly fumble). Miles also gets credit for being one of only two experts to rank Vincent Jackson as a top 5 WR. V-Jax’s breakthrough game (165 yards receiving, 1 TD) was a key contributor to Miles’ lofty WR rating.

 

  • Mike Woellert (FantasyFootball.com) makes an appearance in the top 5 for an impressive 3rd time this season. Woellert did particularly well this past week with his WR predictions. Specifically, he was one of just a handful of experts to slot Jordy Nelson (123 yards receiving, 2 TDs) as a top 5 WR. He also went against the grain by giving Mike Williams (TB) WR2 status (WR #23). Williams rewarded that faith by producing his best fantasy output of the season (14.3 points). Woellert also hit the mark by outdoing the expert consensus when it came to ranking a trio of stud performers: Vincent Jackson, Torrey Smith & Jerome Simpson. And at the QB position, Woellert was ahead of the field by 6 rank spots in his decision to slot Alex Smith as a viable (QB #11) starting option. That was a quality pick as Smith posted top 10 fantasy numbers.

 

  • If there’s one solid way to make an introduction to the fantasy football world, it’s the following: Create a new site, enter an accuracy competition and finish in the top 5 your first week in the contest. That’s what Greg Smith (The Fake Football) accomplished in week 11. Smith was most accurate at the TE position, where he finished as the 4th rated expert. His TE PAY™ of 80.8% means that following his relevant advice would have netted owners over 80% of available fantasy points. Not bad for a debut, right? Besides hitting on the expected studs (Rob Gronkowski, Jason Witten, Tony Gonzalez), Smith also delivered a nice sleeper hit by placing Kellen Winslow above the majority of experts as his 9th rated TE. Winslow made good on the pick by hitting the Packers up for his best game of the season (9 catches, 132 yards).

 

  • The crew at RosterWatch has been among the best of the best with their predictions over the past several weeks. With a 4th place finish this time around, they’ve now cracked the top 10 each of the last 3 weeks. Of the 74 experts we track, no one else can make that claim. The strength of their week 11 picks came at the QB position. As one example, no other site was higher on Tony Romo than the RosterWatch staff. The much-maligned Cowboys’ QB was penciled in as their 3rd rated QB and he delivered in a big way by tossing 3 TDs (292 yards passing). RosterWatch also took a bit of a gamble by slotting Jay Cutler as their 8th best QB. Only 2 experts graded him higher but it turned out to be a worthy roll of the dice as Cutler put up top 5 fantasy (QB) numbers.

 

That wraps up this week’s accuracy report. As a reminder, the results for the entire field of experts are available over at the accuracy section of our site. You can see how the experts rank for the week and the season.

 

We’ll be back again next week with another recap. Until then, good luck this week and Happy Thanksgiving!

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