You know it’s been a crazy NFL season when you can no longer count on Peyton Manning to be the top fantasy player named “Peyton” in a given week. Of course, the honor of Week 9’s “Best Peyton” went to Peyton Hillis who shredded the Patriots defense for 184 yards rushing. While this may not have been a shock to everyone, only a person making a bold prediction could have foreseen such a standout game from Hillis.
The nearly 40 fantasy experts we monitor delivered plenty of bold predictions in week 9. What follows is a breakdown of the risky predictions that worked out for the experts as well as the picks where it didn’t pay off to against the grain. Note that for our purposes, a bold prediction occurs when an expert is the only person in our field of experts to rank a particular player above another player.
Bold Predictions: Top Hits
Match-up: Brett Favre (QB #19) over Peyton Manning (QB #3)
Expert: WhatIfSports
Difference in Fantasy Points: +10.18
*Ranks in the Match-up header represent each player’s Expert Consensus Rank (ECR)
This was a shocking prediction by WhatIfSports that turned out to be right on the money. As Brett Favre’s Expert Consensus Rank (QB #19) indicates, most of the experts we monitored were expecting very little from him in week 9. Between his injury concerns (ankle/elbow/chin), a questionable supporting cast (banged up Percy Harvin, no Randy Moss) and a potential team mutiny to overthrow Brad Childress, it’s easy to see why the experts formed this opinion. Of course, in typical Favre fashion, just when you count him out he delivers a career high in passing yards (446). WhatIfSports had Favre ranked higher (QB #13) than all but one expert so they deserve credit for being ahead of the curve with their opinion that he could overcome the obstacles.
As for Peyton Manning, WhatIfSports took a big gamble by ranking him considerably lower (QB #15) than the expert field. Despite the long odds, this was an excellent call as Manning was never fully in sync with his depleted receiving corps on Sunday. He finished as just the 19th ranked fantasy QB and this solidified WhatIfSports’ pick as one of the best upset predictions of the week.
Match-up: Seyi Ajirotutu (WR #46) over Jeremy Maclin (WR #13)
Expert: WhatIfSports
Difference in Fantasy Points: +18.3
One of the marks of a truly great surprise player is when hardly anyone knows how to pronounce that person’s name properly. Chargers WR, Seyi Ajirotutu (pronounced Shay-ee Ah-jeer-uh-too-too), certainly fits the bill in this regard. Whether or not they know how to sound out his name, WhatIfSports did the best job of anticipating that Ajirotutu might have a significant fantasy impact in week 9. They ranked him 23 spots ahead of the expert consensus as their WR #23 and Ajirotutu did not disappoint. He admirably filled the void left by the injuries to Malcom Floyd and Antonio Gates and finished the week as the #1 ranked fantasy WR (111 yards receiving, 2 TDs). And if the early waiver wire articles are any indication, the performance has the potential to cause a scramble in most leagues as fantasy owners vie for his services.
Match-up: Steve Johnson (WR #23) over Andre Johnson (WR #4)
Expert: SI.com
Difference in Fantasy Points: +10.4
This was a great pick by SI.com on multiple fronts. They correctly noted that Steve Johnson has become the top red zone target for the Bills which has made him a fantasy stud since Ryan Fitzpatrick took over as the team’s QB. With 6 TDs in his previous 5 games, SI was confident enough to rank him higher (WR #13) than any other expert we tracked. This faith was rewarded as Johnson racked up 11 catches for 145 yards vs. the Bears, once again making him one of the top performers for the week.
The good advice didn’t stop there for SI. They also spotted a tough match-up for Andre Johnson against the Chargers (#1 pass defense). As a result, they slotted him much lower (WR #18) than the rest of the experts. This turned out to be an excellent call by SI as Johnson was bottled up all day (just 4 catches for 41 yards) and he was unable to meet the expectations of the expert consensus.
Match-up: Javarris James (RB #47) over Jahvid Best (RB #17)
Expert: Roger Rotter (Fox Sports)
Difference in Fantasy Points: +4.4
Javarris James (cousin of Edgerrin) went unranked by over half of our expert field in week 9. Needless to say, the expectations were low for him despite a potential opportunity resulting from the injuries to Colts RBs, Joseph Addai and Mike Hart. One of the few experts to believe James could cash in on that opportunity was Roger Rotter (Fox Sports). Rotter handed James a rating (RB #17) that was a full 30 spots higher than his expert consensus ranking. While James had only 4 carries vs. the Eagles, they all came in goal line situations and he made the most of the light workload by netting 2 touchdowns. This was enough to make him the 11th best fantasy RB for the week and credit should go to Rotter for correctly identifying him as a top sleeper.
Of course, as an Eagles fan myself, I am required to (annoyingly) mention that both of James’ TDs came immediately after highly questionable penalties that extended 2 Colts’ drives. So it could be argued that they were a fortunate pair of TDs. Not by me though because I’m not bitter or anything….
Match-up: Randy McMichael (TE #25) over Kellen Winslow (TE #9)
Expert: Josh Moore (4for4.com)
Difference in Fantasy Points: +11.2
Another one of week 9’s replacement stars was Randy McMichael. Filling in for an injured Antonio Gates, McMichael harkened back to his glory days with the Dolphins by hauling in 2 TD passes and finishing as the 3rd most productive fantasy TE. Kudos to Josh Moore (4for4.com) who had McMichael ranked higher than any other expert as his TE #9. Moore was the lone expert to give McMichael a top 12 TE ranking which effectively means he was the only expert to view him as a viable starting option in a standard 12 team league.
Bold Predictions: Top Misses
It’s not easy to go against the grain and make the right call so it’s no surprise that our field of experts didn’t bat 100% on their bold predictions. Click on each match-up below to get a quick snapshot of the top risky picks from week 9 that were off the mark.
- Jon Kitna (QB #16) over Michael Vick (QB #5) – SI.com
- Josh Cribbs (WR #61) over DeSean Jackson (WR #18) – Fantasy Sharks
- Wes Welker (WR #22) over Hakeem Nicks (WR #2) – WhatIfSports
- Sammie Stroughter (WR #68) over Steve Johnson (WR #23) – WhatIfSports
- Devin Aromashodu (WR #69) over Santonio Holmes (WR #36) – FFToolbox
- Chad Ochocinco (WR #26) over Hakeem Nicks (WR #2) – Fantasy Sharks
So there you have it: A breakdown of the bold predictions that represent the top hits and misses from the experts in Week 9. We’ll be back again next week to review the picks where the experts went out on a limb in Week 10. In the meantime, you can follow us on Twitter if you’re interested in staying on top of the latest FantasyPros’ updates.
